2Q Review
- - 2023 Economic y/y growth (2.1%) slowdown due to tightening, but up 0.4% from Jan projection.
- - The U.S. rate (5.25%) froze for first time after 10 rate hikes to cope with inflation (US April CPI 4.0%).
- - PMI continues to contract as the post-pandemic service-oriented economy recovers.
2H Forecast
- - 2024 world GDP to increase by 2.4% as cooling of inflation and restoration of consumer confidence.
- - Rising debt and fiscal fragility in EMs/developing economies due to continued rate hikes could be a potential risk.
- - The Fed gave a projected end-of-'23 rate of 5.6%, with two more rate hikes in the 2nd half.
Manufacturing PMI (June)
- 46.0하락(0.9)
- 43.4하락(1.4)
- 49.0상승(0.2)
Manufacturing continues to contract as services-driven economy recovers.
※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers
International Oil Price (WTI) (June)
-
70.64상승(2.54)Oil price down -38.4% from peak (114.67), US-Iran nuclear deal pushes through, neutralizing Saudi Arabia production cuts
2Q Review
- - Shanghai Containerized Freight Index(SCFI) averaged 976 in H1'23, down -58% from H2'22.
- - Interest rate hikes continue above US Fed target (2%) despite slowing inflation.
- - Amid weak container volumes in H1, orderbook to fleet ratio remained at 28%, dominating the market imbalance.
2H Forecast
- - Expect a moderate recovery in container volumes from 2H'23 onwards.
- - Carriers will continue to control supply and stabilize the supply chain following the settlement of the US West Coast labor dispute.
- - Freight rate growth will be limited due to large supply growth exceeding demand growth.
Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast
- SCFI comprehensive index is expected to be 980~1,030 in the 3Q of ‘23 and 1,005~1,010 in the 4Q of '23.
Freight forecast 2nd half of '23 : USWC $1,650 / USEC $2,850 / North Europe $860
Regional Trends
- [Asia]
Along with the nearshoring trend of shifting plants from China to Mexico.
China’s total investment in Mexico last year approached $500 million, up from $300 million in 2020 and $200 million in 2019.
- [Americas]
ILWU and PMA reached a tentative agreement on a new six-year contract covering all 29 ports along the US West Coast.
Both parties said in a joint statement, they will turn out full attention back to the operation of the West Coast ports.
- [Europe]
A new FTA between the UK and Australia has come into action from 1 June, removing ‘most’ tariffs on trade between two nations One major aim is to “increase the resilience” of UK’s supply chains by diversifying trade.
2Q Review
- - Airfreight rates rebounded modestly in the middle of the 1H in some segments, but remained broadly depressed.
- - On the capacity side, passenger airplane belly capacity continues to expand as travel demand recovers, while service-oriented. Demand continues to slow as manufacturing weakens amid economic recovery.
2H Forecast
- - The outlook for commodity demand remains subdued, with companies increasingly delaying replenishment of inventories.
- - Market is expected to weaken, but capacity is expected to exceed pre-pandemic levels due to continued expansion of belly capacity as the passenger industry normalizes. This capacity-demand imbalance is expected to weaken freight rates.
Samsung SDS TAC Forecasting
- HKG-US: 3Q'23 $3.8 to $3.9, 4Q'23 $4.0 to $4.4,
HKG-EUR: $3.6 to $3.8 in 3Q'23, $3.0 to $3.6 in 4Q'23.
Regional Trends
- [Asia]
Maersk Air Cargo introduces new B767Fs and expands capacity on Asia-US/Europe routes.
Chicago-Hangzhou will increase from 3/W to 6/W, Greenville-Spartanburg-Incheon-Shenyang will increase from 2/W to 3/W, and Billund-Hangzhou will increase from 3/W to 5/W.
- [Americas]
Lufthansa Cargo is offering six freighter connections with Boeing 777F aircraft to and from Mexico City's second major airport, Felipe Ángeles (NLU), in the 2023 summer flight schedule.
- [Europe]
Airbus’s new level brings the A350F closer to its future rival, the Boeing 777-8F.
The company also revealed that the freighter jet will have a 175-inch (4.44 m) wide cargo door, larger than the 777F.
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