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Thông tin thị trường [Square Newsletter] 2022 No.11

Ngày đăng kíNOV 29, 2022


Oct, U.S. PMI continues to fall, standing at 50.2, the lowest level since Jun 2020. China PMI fell to 49.3, into contraction territory, due to the negative impact of zero-COVID policies. WTI picked up in October as OPEC+ announced to cut production.
The composite index was 1,579.21. Combining with the shrinkage of demand and expected influx of deliveries, the imbalance between global container fleet growth and demand growth is projected to widen to 5.7% in 2023.
Slowing global macroeconomics, weak air cargo goods, falling ocean prices and increased capacity increase the possibility of conversion to the ocean, and overall demand is expected to weaken. HKG→EUR/US are expected to continue to fall for '23 after a slight rebound at the end of the year.

Economic Indicators

98.6(0.2) September
50.2(0.7) October
87.2(7.7%) Octover

The OECD leading economic index has fallen for 14 consecutive months since July 21 (101.3), with the U.S. falling for 16 months and China falling for 20 consecutive months.
WTI picked up in October as OPEC+ announced to cut production. To lower oil price, Biden and his administration are planning to release more from SPR. and encourage U.S. oil firm increase production.

Logistics Market Trends

1,579.21(118.44) November Week 1
November Week 1
3.715(0.453) October

SCFI was 1,579.21, down 69% from its peak in Jan '22, the lowest since Oct, '20. It has been on the decline for the last 20 consecutive weeks.
Jet Fuel & FSC showed the same trend and rebounded after falling for 3 consecutive months. Jet Fuel was 10% down from the high point, but +60% year-on-year. FSC fell 39% year-on-year, but +84% year-on-year.

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