Thông tin thị trường [Square Newsletter] 2022 No.12

Economy

The manufacturing PMI of major economies is continuing to slow down, and the crude oil price reduced as concerns over the economic downturn of 2023 and the lockdown following the spread of COVID-19 in China led to the increase of concerns over the decrease in demand.

Sea Freight

The composite index was 1,579.21. Combining with the shrinkage of demand and expected influx of deliveries, the imbalance between global container fleet growth and demand growth is projected to widen to 5.7% in 2023.

Air Freight

Slowing global macroeconomics, weak air cargo goods, falling ocean prices and increased capacity increase the possibility of conversion to the ocean, and overall demand is expected to weaken. HKG→EUR/US are expected to continue to fall for '23 after a slight rebound at the end of the year.

The OECD leading economic index has fallen for 15 consecutive months since July 21 (101.4), with the U.S. falling for 17 months and China falling for 21 consecutive months.
U.S. PMI fell to its lowest level for the first time since June 2020. China PMI has fallen due to the Covid outbreak and restrictions. Europe PMI moved up slightly to 47.1, while downtrends continue.

SCFI has been on the decline for the last 24 consecutive weeks, and the imbalance of growth between global container fleet and demand is expected to widen to 6.5% in 2023. Jet Fuel & FSC fell again after rebounding in October due to weak international oil prices, but it is still high compared to the previous year.