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Inteligencia De Mercado [Aug 2023] Logistics market review and outlook for July

Registration dateAUG 10, 2023

Economic Indicator

OECD Composite Leading Indicator (June)

미국
98.9(0.1)
유럽
98.9(-)
중국
100.6(0.2)
(Source : OECD)

In June 2023, OECD Leading Economic Indicators for the US and Europe continued to be in contraction, China continued expansion above 100 for 4 months since March.

※ If it is in an upward with more than 100 based on 100, it is evaluated as an expansion phase, if it is in a downward with less than 100, a contraction phase.
※ Europe : France, Germany, Italy, UK

Manufacturing PMI (July)

미국
46.4(0.4)
유럽
42.7(0.7)
중국
49.3(0.3)
(Source : Investing.com)

July'23 US PMI index was 46.4, 9th consecutive months of contraction.
Europe contracted for 13th consecutive months at 42.7 (6 consecutive months of declines).
China contracted for 4th consecutive months at 49.3 in Apr despite 2-months rise.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

International Oil Price (WTI) (July)

국제유가(WTI)
80.3(9.7)
WTI market repricing as output cuts, China stimulus prospects reinforce the 2H 2023 oil price.
WTI has increased from $70.6/barrel in June 2023 to $80.3/barrel in July 2023, +13.6% (MoM).
(Source : Investing.com)

Logistics Market Trends

Ocean

Ocean

Container Freight Rate : SCFI (July)

Container Freight Rate : SCFI
977(13)
The SCFI has barely shifted recently, up by 1.3% MoM in July.
Transpacific rates saw an increase in July due to Canadian port strike, capacity reduction and positive demand outlook.
(Source : Shanghai Shipping Exchange )

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast
The Composite Index forecasts 950-977 points for 3Q 2023 and 949-955 points for 4Q 2023.
Freight forecast 2nd half of 2023 : USWC $1,625 / USEC $2,750 / North Europe $883
(Source : SamsungSDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

Asia
[Asia]
Chinese shipping line, Jinjiang Shipping has signed a joint venture agent cooperation agreement with Pacific Marine Co. to enlarge its overseas market and service scope in the RCEP(Reginal Comprehensive Economic Partnership) region. (7/24, Seatrade Maritime)
Americas
[Americas]
- The Panama Canal Authority has decided to restrict the number of daily transits to 32 vessels per day due to the drought conditions. The authority stated the canal could handle up to 40 transit per day at peak performance (7/24, Splash 247)
- Liners managed down Transpacific capacity, with Asia-West Coast capacity down by 15% in July versus June, Asia-East Coast capacity down 8-10% including the effect of Panama Canal restrictions. (7/24, Freight Waves)
Europe
[Europe]
- With potential peak-season import by European shippers over next few months, ahead of the holiday season. Leading container lines on India-Europe networks have announced a wave of steep rate hikes, starting next month. (7/14, The Loadstar)
- Due to the termination of volumes to the from Russia and the fall in imports from Asia, Rotterdam’s box throughput fell by 8.1% over the same period in 2022, handling 6.7 million TEUs in 1H 2023. (7/21, Container News)

Air

Air

Air Freight Rate: TAC Index (July)

TAC Index
HKG-EUR 3.60(0.12) HKG-US 4.44(0.29)
HKG-EUR ($3.60) averages 11th consecutive monthly decline, HKG-US ($4.44) declines for 4th consecutive months.
SHA-EUR ($3.10) rebounded slightly in July after 3 consecutive months of declines, SHA-US ($4.27) fell again in July after a rebound in June.
(Source : TAC Index)

Samsung SDS TAC Forecasting

Samsung SDS TAC Forecasting
HKG-US forecast $3.9 - $4.4 in the 3Q and $4.0 -$4.4 in the 4Q of 2023
HKG-EUR forecast $3.6 - $3.8 in the 3Q and $3.5 ~ $3.6 in the 4Q of 2023
(Source : SamsungSDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

Asia
[Asia]
Air cargo demand, as measured by freight ton-kilometers (FTKs), fell 8.1% yoy in June, according to preliminary traffic figures released by the Asia-Pacific Airlines Associations(AAPA). Cargo capacity increased by 0.7%, with international load factor(L/F) at 60.7% in June, down 5.9%p yoy. (7/28, Cargo Press)
Americas
[Americas]
Officials at Los Angeles International Airport said Monday they have selected a consortium led by Realterm, the largest manager of on-airport air cargo real estate in North America, to redevelop obsolete cargo facilities across the sprawling complex into a consolidated, technically advanced cargo village that increases capacity and efficiency. (7/25, Freight Waves)
Europe
[Europe]
Commercial aircraft revenues rose by 16% due to deliveries rising from 297 in H1 2022 to 316. In the first half (H1 2023), Airbus reported consolidated revenue of €27.7 billion ($30.7b), which was an 11% increase on the €24.8 billion ($27.5b) generated in H1 2022. (7/26, Simple Flying)

National Holiday Calendar (Aug.)

Calendar
(Source : https://www.timeanddate.com/ )

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