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Market Intelligence [Oct. 2023] Quarterly Logistics Market Review and Outlook

Registration dateOCT 19, 2023

Economic Indicator

3Q Review

  • - After a stronger-than-expected start to 2023, helped by lower energy prices and the reopening of China, global growth is expected to moderate.
  • - Oil prices rose above $90 a barrel for the first time in 2023 as Saudi and Russia said they would extend their voluntary production and export cuts until the end of the year.

2H Forecast

  • - Global GDP growth is projected to remain sub-par in 2023 and 2024, at 3% and 2.7% respectively, held back by the macroeconomic policy tightening needed to rein in inflation.
  • - Global demand for crude oil will exceed supply through Q4 '23, with oil prices expected to continue to rise.

Manufacturing PMI (September)

미국
49.0(1.4)
유럽
43.4(0.1)
중국
50.2(0.5)
(Source : Investing.com)

U.S. August CPI is up 3.7% y-o-y, CPI in September to be determined by oil price developments.
China PMI is at 50.2, it enters the expansionary phase for the first time in 6 months, the impact of central bank rate cuts and other policies to stimulate the economy.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

International Oil Price (WTI) (September)

International Oil Price (WTI)
90.7(7.1)
Oil price down -21% from peak (114.67), Oil hits $90 for the first time in ‘23 as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend cuts, Global demand for crude oil began to exceed supply in June ‘23, and oil prices are expected to remain elevated through Q4 ‘23
(Source : U.S. Energy Information Administration)

Logistics Market Trends

Ocean

Ocean

3Q Review

  • - Shanghai Containerized Freight Index(SCFI) averaged 986 in Q3'23, down -70% from Q3'22.
  • - Global container volumes are estimated to be flat YoY in Q3, continuing oversupply due to economic slowdown and large newbuilding deliveries.

2H Forecast

  • - '23 Q4 expected to remain weak as the industry heads into the off-peak season. Supply dominance is likely to continue in '24 as the orderbook to total fleet ratio remains at 28%.
  • - However, further declines in freight rates are expected to be limited by expected recovery in North American consumption growth and aggressive supply management strategies by liners.

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast
SCFI comprehensive index is expected to be 922~946 in the 4Q of ’23 and 856~957 in the 1Q of '24.
Freight forecast 4Q of '23 : USWC $1,640 / USEC $2,440 / North Europe $640
(Source : SamsungSDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

Asia
[Asia]
Liner capacity space tighten during peak season Aug-Oct.
Spot rate static/dip slightly after peak season but shippers begin ramping up orders ahead.
Americas
[Americas]
- Spot rate reached higher due to seasonal merchandise, draught restriction on Panama Canal, combined with blank sailing and Vancouver/Prince Port labor issue.
- Market predicts Aug spot rates had hit a ceiling and will hold through Sep to early of Oct.
Europe
[Europe]
- 2M blank sailing to support rate increases.
- Shipper opts to delay signing new long-term contracts.

Air

Air

3Q Review

  • - Overall capacity continues to grow as travel demand recovery drives airliner belly capacity, but demand declines slowing down, with freight rate rebounding slightly.

2H Forecast

  • - Global economic slowdown is expected to weaken related demand even as we enter traditional peak season; passenger demand expected to continue to increase in Q4 as capacity in the belly recovers. This will limit fare growth.

Samsung SDS TAC Forecasting

Samsung SDS TAC Forecasting
HKG-US: 4Q'23 $4.6 to $4.9, 1Q'24 $4.6 to $4.9, 2Q'24 $4.3 to $4.7
HKG-EUR: 4Q'23 $3.8 to $4.0, 1Q'24 $3.4 to $3.6, 2Q'24 $3.8 to $4.0
(Source : SamsungSDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

Asia
[Asia]
The robust exports of China cross-border e-commerce support China’s air cargo demand.
China’s passenger recovery boosts both demand and supply, 76.5% of pre-pandemic same month(Aug). Renewed declines in export orders prolonged the decline in air cargo markets.
Americas
[Americas]
US importers “most customers do not plan to significantly increase shipments in the fourth quarter”.
Europe
[Europe]
Tight capacity from Vietnam due to e-commerce volumes from China before and after the Chinese holiday period caused prices to surge th Europe(VTM → EUR : +48.2% in 2 weeks)

National Holiday Calendar (Oct.)

Calendar
(Source : https://www.timeanddate.com/ )

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