Square Insights Decarbonization Regulations
in the Logistics Industry:
What Will Change in 2026?

1. In 2026, Decarbonization Regulations Move From ‘Compliance’ to the ‘Preparation for Implementation’ Stage

Until now, decarbonization regulations in the logistics industry have been seen as something far away. Regulations have been under discussion, their effective dates postponed or uncertain, and many companies have adopted a “watch‑and‑see” strategy. Responses up to 2025 has remained in the stage of understanding the regulations and conducting basic compliance reviews, 2026 is the point at which the very approach must change.

From 2026 onward, decarbonization regulations will shift from the question of “whether they will be introduced” to a preparation phase that assumes “when and how they will be applied.” The full implementation of the EU CBAM, concrete regulations of carbon regulations for the international shipping and aviation sectors, and the strengthening of carbon‑pricing policies in various countries all demand tangible changes to the operational, cost, and contract structures of both logistics providers and shippers.

What is especially noteworthy is that the criterion for regulatory responses are no longer merely “compliance.” Decarbonization regulations from 2026 will ask about the “execution capability”, such as: ▲ how accurately carbon emissions are measured, ▲ whether data visibility across the entire supply chain has been secured, ▲ whether regulatory costs can be forecasted and reflected in freight rates and contracts. This means that decarbonization responses become a factor of competitiveness beyond risk management. Even when faced with the same regulations, companies that prepared for regulations can minimize cost increases and create new opportunities, whereas unprepared companies will see tightening regulations immediately translate into operational burdens and supply‑chain risks.

Therefore, 2026 is a pivotal year. It marks the point at which decarbonization regulations actually start to “operate” in the business environment, and it will clearly reveal how well logistics companies and shippers are prepared in terms of data, systems, and strategy. This article will examine how each regulation changes in 2026 and detail how logistics companies and shippers should respond.

2. Global Decarbonization Regulations – What Is Changing?

1) IMO (International Maritime Organization)’s Decarbonization Regulations for Ships and Ocean Shipping – Net‑Zero Framework

So far, IMO’s decarbonization regulations for ships have focused on improving operational efficiency centered on the Carbon Intensity Indicator (CII). However, from 2026, key standards of discussion of the IMO Net‑Zero Framework has shifted from CII to GFI (Greenhouse Gas Fuel Intensity), which directly assesses the GHG emission intensity of fuels. This implies that decarbonization for shipping is transitioning from an “issue of operation” to an “issue of fuel and energy choice”

• Goal :

  Achieve net zero of GHG emitted from international shipping by 2050
  (based on IMO’s 2023 GHG Strategy regulatory framework)

• Key Elements

  • -

    Introduce a GHG Fuel Intensity (GFI) standard : Ships must progressively reduce the GHG emission intensity of fuel across the full life cycle (from production to consumption, Well to Wake) that has been used for a year

  • -

    Emission price mechanism : Exceeding the standard incurs a cost (Remedial Units); staying below the standard earns incentives (Surplus Units, SU).

  • -

    Target : Large vessels of 5,000 GT (gross tonnage) or more engaged in international voyages are the primary targets

• Status in 2026

  • -

    In October 2025, IMO delayed the member state vote on the issue that was discussed at the special session of the Marine Environment Protection Committee—to 2026. Adoption and implementation dates are to be decided later.

  • -

    Initial implementation was expected for 2028; delays in adoption increase the likelihood of a later rollout.

Although IMO regulations has not yet been formally adopted, the direction of decarbonization in the global shipping and the details are becoming clear, making corporate‑level preparation increasingly important.

2) EU ETS

EU ETS is a system designed to reduce greenhouse gas emissions within the EU based on the market.

• Goal :

  Reduce total EU greenhouse gas emissions by 55 % compared with 1990 levels by 2030.

• Key elements

  • -

    Cap‑and‑Trade : The EU sets an overall emissions cap, allocates allowances to each company → allows trading of surplus allowances or purchasing those if needed

  • -

    Monitoring, Reporting, and Verification (MRV) : Accurately calculate emission data and independently verify it

  • -

    Application to aviation and shipping : Aviation covers flights within and between EU member states, with allowance allocation and surrender obligations; shipping will be fully applied starting in 2026.

3) FuelEU Maritime

FuelEU Maritime is a regulation through which the EU directly regulates the greenhouse gas (GHG) intensity of marine fuels since 2025.

• Goal :

  Promote the decarbonization of marine fuels and support the shipping carbon‑neutrality target for shipping by 2050

• Key elements

  • -

    GHG‑intensity reduction targets (baseline year: 2020): the average GHG intensity of the fuel used by ships must be lowered stepwise as follows:

    • 2025 : -2%

    • 2030 : -6%

    • 2035 : -14.5%

    • 2040 : -31%

    • 2045 : -62%

    • 2050 : -80%

    → The reduction rate soars over time.

• Application: Vessels of 5,000 GT or more (100 % coverage on EU routes, 50 % on EU–non EU routes).

• Emission pricing mechanism: The average GHG intensity is calculated at the company level rather than per vessel. If a company exceeds the benchmark, it faces financial penalties (fines). Excess reductions can be banked (carried forward) or pooled (can combine multiple vessels to meet the average requirement)

• Considerations for 2026: As FuelEU Maritime will be implemented alongside the EU ETS—where the ETS prices “emissions” and FuelEU sets a “fuel intensity standard”—shipping companies will need to devise strategies that address this dual regulation framework.

4) EU CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism)

CBAM is a system that imposes a carbon cost on high‑carbon emission products imported into the EU. At the time of import, the greenhouse‑gas emissions from the manufacturing process are calculated, triggering the obligation to purchase and submit CBAM certificates.

• Implementation date: From 1 January 2026 it will shift to “full enforcement,” making the certificate purchase mandatory

• Product categories: Includes carbon-intensive industrial products, such as steel, aluminum, cement, fertilizers, electricity, hydrogen, etc.

• Characteristics of regulations: It is not merely reporting; data verification and mandatory certificate purchase generate actual costs. As it is in the early stage of implementation, some easing measures are applied (e.g., a de minimis rule exempts small importers whose annual imports are less than 50 tons from the CBAM obligation).

5) Aviation sector: CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation)

CORSIA (Carbon Offsetting and Reduction Scheme for International Aviation) is a program led by the ICAO (International Civil Aviation Organization) that aims to offset and reduce greenhouse gas emissions from international flights.

• Goal :

  Ensure that CO₂ emissions from international flights do not exceed a baseline by offsetting or reducing emissions

• Application: Apply to international flights (cross border operations). Domestic flights are subject to each country’s own ETS or other policies (the program is expected to be maintained and strengthened in 2026).

3. The Impact of Decarbonization Regulations on Logistics Companies

1) Freight Rate Increase and Cost Structure Changes

Decarbonization regulations are structurally reshaping logistics cost structures. In ocean shipping, the IMO GFI standards and Remedial Unit (RU) mechanism, together with the impact of the EU ETS and CBAM, are reflected in carriers’ costs, making “carbon cost” effectively a new component of freight rates. In air transportation, the mandatory expansion of SAF (Sustainable Aviation Fuel) along with and ETS costs are passed on to air freight, meaning that beyond short‑term rate hikes, future rates could evolve into a “carbon‑linked pricing system” that varies according to fuel mix, emission intensity, and route strategy. Logistics costs are no longer merely a simple supply‑and‑demand issue; they are being reorganized into a structure where gaps arise from the ability to respond to regulations.

2) Supply‑Chain Restructuring and Transportation Mode Shift

As carbon regulations tighten, the burden on long‑distance, single‑source production structures grows, increasing the likelihood of near‑shoring and diversification strategies. Moreover, urgent logistics that relied on air are partially shifting to lower‑emission modes such as sea, rail, and intermodal transport. In shipping, routes using low‑carbon fuels and carriers with a high share of eco‑friendly vessels may become dominant. Consequently, the traditional supply‑chain design focused on “lead‑time optimization” is expanding into a “Carbon Optimized Supply Chain” concept.

3) Strengthened ESG Demands from Shippers

Global shippers face stricter obligations to manage Scope 3 emissions, raising ESG expectations for logistics partners. Visibility of indirect emissions generated in logistics (Scope 3 Category 4 & 9) has become critical due to EU CBAM, supply‑chain due diligence regulations, and the spread of global disclosure standards. Hence, shippers now evaluate partners not only on freight rate competitiveness but also on the availability of low‑carbon transport options, transparency of emission data, and whether a partner possesses a reduction roadmap.

4) Need for Data‑Driven Carbon Management성

Decarbonization regulations have been advanced, demanding quantitative proof (Measurement, Reporting, Verification). This makes calculations of emissions per transport leg, inclusion of carbon coefficients for each fuel type, and real‑time integration of transport data essential capabilities. Certified—not merely estimated—data is increasingly important, expanding the role of digital logistics platforms and data‑integration systems. After all, logistics competitiveness in the decarbonization era depends on “how accurately we can measure and manage carbon emissions.”

4. The Core of Logistics Decarbonization: “Data and Visibility”

1) Standards and Limitations of Carbon‑Emission

The quantification of carbon emissions in logistics is becoming increasingly standardized. IMO’s GFI, the EU ETS, CBAM, and CORSIA are all based on quantitative emission calculation and verification (MRV: Monitoring, Reporting, Verification). From corporate perspective, the GHG Protocol Scope 3 (especially in the transport and distribution stages) and ISO 14083 are spreading as logistics emission accounting standards. Nevertheless, limitations remain. When actual transport data are not secured, companies must rely on default values, and accurate allocation of emissions is difficult for multimodal or transshipment legs. Moreover, even for the same route, emission intensity varies with vessel or aircraft type, load factor, and fuel type, therefore simple distance‑based calculations fail to capture reality. In other words, while the methodology is getting more sophisticated, the reliability of the calculation has no choice but to be constrained unless data quality catch up with the pace.

2) The Importance of Real‑Time Logistics Data

As decarbonization regulations tighten, “post‑reporting” gives way to “carbon management during operations.” Only by using real‑time transport data—mode, route, vessel/flight details, fuel type, load factor, etc.—can emissions be calculated more accurately and, when necessary, routes be adjusted or shifted to low‑carbon options. In a structure where freight rates are linked to carbon costs, carbon‑intensity information becomes information forecasting costs. Without real‑time visibility, companies cannot proactively manage regulatory risks and cost volatility. Consequently, logistics operational data will function not merely as tracking information but as a core asset for controlling carbon risks.

5. Data‑Driven Decarbonization Regulation Response Measures Provided by Cello Square

Cello Square offers a function that estimates and displays the carbon emissions and carbon intensity of the entire transportation process based on route, distance, and volume information. By presenting the estimated CO₂ emissions of a logistics route already at the quotation stage, shippers can make decisions that consider not only simple freight costs but also carbon impact. This capability secures the basic data required for quantitative emissions calculations demanded by regulations such as IMO GFI, EU ETS, and CBAM, enabling carbon risk management from the planning phase rather than only post‑reports.

1) Carbon Emission Dashboard

Calculate the estimated carbon emissions at the quotation stage and provide a carbon emission dashboard for both sea and air to the customer. Offer various analysis options (e.g., time series analysis) according to service type, allowing shippers to integrate and manage carbon emissions before and after transport.

2) Logistics Optimization Consulting

Through load optimization through Cello Square, consulting for reducing carbon emissions becomes possible. By maximizing load factor within pallets, containers, and trucks, it decreases container and truck transport volumes, achieving carbon emission reductions through saving resources. Additionally, route optimization enables reductions in the number of trucks and transit time, further lowering carbon emissions.

3) Green Logistics Services

As the first in Germany to apply H2 Delivery hydrogen electric trucks to logistics operations, we provide green logistics services by offering maritime services linked to low‑carbon fuel products (CMA‑CGM’s low‑carbon fuel product), cutting down on emissions by up to 84% (Well‑to‑Wheel basis).

6. Decarbonization Regulations Are an Opportunity, Not a Crisis

Decarbonization regulations can no longer be viewed merely as a temporary burden or a cost increasing factor. The global regulatory framework represented by IMO, the EU ETS, FuelEU Maritime, CBAM, and others is already fundamentally reshaping how logistics and supply chains operate, making this a matter of transition rather than choice. Yet this shift also presents new opportunities. Companies that meticulously manage carbon data, proactively adopt low‑carbon transportation strategies, and secure visibility across the entire supply chain can manage cost risks while strengthening ESG competitiveness. Ultimately, decarbonization is more than a regulatory response—it is an essential choice for building a sustainable supply chain, and the speed and strategic execution of this shift will determine future logistics competitiveness.