Expert Column US Protectionist Tariff System and Global Supply Chain Restructuring: Changes in Logistics Flows and Response Strategies

The U.S. protectionist tariff policy is causing structural changes in the global supply chain and international logistics structure. Since the launch of the second Trump administration, the expansion of reciprocal tariffs and high industry-specific tariffs has established tariffs as a policy constant rather than a negotiation variable, and companies are now facing an environment where they must redesign their supply chain and logistics strategies based on this premise. In particular, recent U.S. tariff policies, combined with industrial policies and supply chain regulations, have simultaneously diversified and increased the volatility of policy tools, meaning that companies must establish supply chain strategies that consider not only changes in tariff rates but also policy risks.

These changes are also affecting the structure of Korean exports, promoting diversification of logistics flows centered on Southeast Asia, and the strengthening of transshipment enforcement and the expansion of supply chain regulations such as the UFLPA[1] are requiring traceability throughout the entire process from raw material procurement to production and transportation. At the same time, the expansion of nearshoring[2] centered on Mexico and the rise of Indian supply chains are gradually leading to a multipolar global logistics network, and export companies and logistics companies need to establish response systems that integrate tariff and origin strategies with digital-based supply chain management capabilities.

1. Changes in the U.S. tariff policies

In January 2025, following the launch of the second Trump administration, the global trade environment entered a period of structural transition. The United States successively introduced high tariffs, including a 15% mutual tariff, 50% of sector-specific tariffs on steel, aluminum, and copper, and 25% tariffs on automobiles and automobile parts (retroactively applied to 15% from November 1, 2025), thereby materializing its protectionist policies. These measures are acting as policy variables that trigger the reorganization of global supply chains, going beyond merely protecting specific industries.

Notably, tariff policy has become a structural variable that is no longer a negotiable policy tool but rather a long-term fixed factor. On February 20, 2026, the U.S. Supreme Court issued a ruling recognizing the illegality of the imposition of reciprocal tariffs; however, the U.S. administration introduced a 10% global tariff system on February 24, 2026, to replace it, and has announced plans to increase it to 15% in the future. This indicates that tariff policy is being used as a key means of economic and industrial policy for the revival of American manufacturing, rather than simply as a response to trade disputes.

These changes are also having a direct impact on the supply chain strategies of global companies. In the past, logistics strategies were designed with a focus on cost efficiency, such as freight rates, lead times, and inventory management. However, today, strategic logistics management that integrates tariff structure analysis, origin strategies, and non-tariff regulation responses is required. Moreover, amid the recent escalation of military conflict between the United States, Israel, and Iran, uncertainty in Middle East maritime logistics has greatly increased as Iran continues to implement blockade measures, such as firing missiles at vessels passing through the Strait of Hormuz. The Strait of Hormuz is a key maritime corridor through which about 20% of the world's seaborne oil passes. The mere possibility of a blockade is causing simultaneous increases in international logistics costs due to more vessels taking diversions, rising sea freight rates, and higher war insurance premiums.

This situation is intensifying the double pressure on global companies, adding rising maritime transportation costs due to geopolitical risks to the burden of protectionist tariffs. In this environment of expanding uncertainty, global logistics is functioning as a core management element that integrates trade risk management and supply chain strategies beyond the simple transportation management domain. Ultimately, the U.S. protectionist tariff policy has become a constant in the global trade environment, and companies are faced with the situation where they must fundamentally redesign their supply chain structures and logistics strategies based on these new conditions.

2. Changes in Korean Export and Logistics Flows Due to Changes in Tariff Policies

Changes in U.S. tariff policy are gradually causing shifts in Korea's export structure and logistics flow. A look at recent export statistics shows that Korea's main export market structure is increasingly becoming multipolar, moving away from the traditional U.S. and China centered structure. (Table 1)

In particular, the increase in exports to the Southeast Asian region is notable. Looking at the export growth rate from 2024 to 2025, the Southeast Asian market recorded the highest growth rate, increasing by more than 9%. This is interpreted not as a simple market expansion, but as a result of simultaneous relocation of production bases and restructuring of supply chains. On the other hand, exports to the US market have slightly decreased. This can be understood as a structural adjustment arising from price competitiveness adjustments due to the application of high tariffs and the redesign of supply chain structures, rather than a decrease in demand in the US market. China is also showing a trend of decreasing exports due to the impact of sluggish demand for intermediate goods and the prolonged US-China conflict.

The European market is maintaining stable growth due to increasing demand related to energy transition and the defense industry, while the Japanese market remains generally stable but continues to have limited growth momentum. This trend suggests that the center of Korea's export structure is gradually shifting towards Southeast Asia. Southeast Asia is emerging not just as a complementary market, but as a new manufacturing and logistics hub in the process of global supply chain restructuring.

In terms of logistics, these changes are clearly evident. The container cargo volume on Southeast Asian routes is increasing, and the global supply chain network via Southeast Asia is expanding. This can be seen as a strategic choice by companies to alleviate tariff burdens and secure supply chain stability.

3. Logistics Demand Diversification in Asia and Structural Factors

1) The Limitations of a Transshipment-Centric Supply Chain Strategy

In the past, global companies have utilized strategies such as transshipment or simple assembly through Southeast Asian countries to avoid tariff burdens. However, recently, the United States Customs and Border Protection (CBP) has been strengthening its crackdown on tariff evasion through transshipment and is strictly applying origin criteria based on substantial transformation.

According to CBP's statistics on the detection of tariff evasion activities (Figure 1), among the types of tariff evasion, transshipment accounts for the largest proportion, with Asian countries such as Malaysia (104 cases), South Korea (41 cases), Thailand (40 cases), and Vietnam (30 cases) included among the main enforcement targets. This indicates that it is difficult change an origin through simple packaging, reassembly, or minor processing. These changes require companies to shift from simple transit-type supply chains to substantive localization strategies that strengthen local production bases.

[U.S. CBP's Indirect Import Enforcement Status (as of October 2025) (Figure 1)]

(Source: Data CBP, EAPA statistics.^[3])

2) Strengthening Supply Chain Traceability

Recently, the rapidly strengthening norms in the global trade environment are supply chain transparency and digital traceability. The U.S. UFLPA, the EU's Supply Chain Due Diligence Directive (CSDDD), and the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) all require companies to bear proof of responsibility throughout the entire supply chain. This means that it is expanding beyond simply verifying the final country of production to a comprehensive supply chain verification system that includes raw material procurement, production processes, and logistics routes.

In particular, the enforcement statistics of the UFLPA by the U.S. CBP clearly demonstrate this trend. Looking at the countries with the highest amounts detected, not only China but also Southeast Asian production hubs such as Malaysia, Vietnam, and Thailand are included. This suggests that the U.S. is not regulating products from specific countries alone but is subjecting the entire supply chain routes to verification. The large scale of detections in Malaysia and Vietnam reflects the strong suspicion of U.S. authorities regarding the system where Chinese raw materials are processed and exported via third countries. In other words, U.S. supply chain regulations are shifting from “manufacturing country-centered verification” to “supply chain structure-centered verification”.

These changes have two important implications. First, the risk of forced labor is not an issue specific to certain countries but a problem with the entire supply chain structure. Even if the manufacturing country is a third country, if the supply chain in the Xinjiang region is connected at the raw material procurement stage, customs clearance may be withheld. Second, it is getting difficult to manage customs clearance risks with just a Certificate of Origin. The U.S. CBP requires data from all stages of the supply chain, including raw material sourcing records, Bill of Materials (BOM), production process records, and transportation history, and companies must be able to submit these immediately.

These changes are redefining the role of the logistics industry. Beyond being merely a simple transport service provider, logistics companies should play a role as an information platform that manages supply chain data and provides evidence. In the end, it is highly likely that the global competitive edge depends not only on cost efficiency but also on supply chain transparency along with data-based digital traceability capability.

3) The Rise of Nearshoring and India’s Supply Chain

The US high tariff rates policy and enhancement of supply chain risk management are promoting the reorganization of the global production base and the logistics network. As a result, Mexico and India are emerging as new strategic supply chain hubs. In particular, the North American market-centered nearshoring strategy is now expanding its role beyond a mere manufacturing relocation to a complex logistics network that connects Asia, Mexico and the U.S. inland.

Mexico has positioned itself as a key player in the North America supply chain based on geographical proximity and the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA). Port of Manzanillo, a main gateway to the Pacific Coast of Mexico, is securing its position as the largest container port in Mexico by handling approximately 3.89 million TEUs in 2025. Port of Lazaro Cardenas, also undergoing volume growth, is functioning as a major entry of cargo from Asia to North American market. Notably, the essence of nearshoring lies not only in expanding production within Mexico but also in extending the North American inland logistics network that routes through Mexico. The increasing volume of truck freight passing through Laredo —one of the primary gateways on the U.S.–Mexico border—demonstrates that cross-border overland transport into the North American inland is being structurally expanded. Moreover, the sea-land intermodal transport system, in which cargo discharged at Mexico’s west-coast ports is transported by rail and truck to the U.S. Midwest and South, has already become a leading operational model.

Meanwhile, India is rising as one of the key pillars in Asia’s supply chain diversification strategy. India has been growing as a manufacturing hub for various industries ranging from semiconductor post-processing, pharmaceuticals, and automobile parts, driving the cargo volume growth for the Southwest Asia route. Jawaharlal Nehru Port (JNPA), India’s largest container gateway, has recorded double-digit growth in recent years, underpinning the expansion of cargo originating from or transiting through India. In addition, container throughput is increasing at southeast ports, including Chennai Port, further strengthening the role of southern India as a global manufacturing and export hub.

These changes signify that the “China Plus One” strategy[5] is evolving into a diversified supply chain structure beyond reducing dependence on China. Mexico, the nearshoring hub for the North American market, is enhancing its role as a global manufacturing and export hub; the global logistics is also being reorganized to align with the new supply chain structure.

4. Integrated Management of Tariffs and Rules of Origin Risks And Export Logistics Response Strategies

1) Strategic Responses of Corporates

In today’s trade environment, tariffs are not merely a cost but function as a strategic variable directly linked to a company’s price competitiveness. Even for the same product, the applicable tariff can vary significantly depending on HS code classification, rules of origin determination, and whether a trade agreement applies. Therefore, companies need to establish a comprehensive landed cost analysis framework that takes tariff structures into account from the product design stage. This approach should integrate tariff rates, freight, insurance, exchange rates, and inland transportation costs to design an optimal supply‑chain structure. Additionally, legitimate tariff reduction strategies can be employed to adjust product architecture and manufacturing processes. Utilizing U.S. Foreign Trade Zones (FTZ) can simultaneously provide duty deferral and exemption on re‑exported goods, while a combined transport strategy linked to nearshoring hubs in Mexico can effectively alleviate the customs burden as well.

2) Establishment of Supply Chain Data Management System

Managing tariffs and rules of origin risks requires an integrated system that centrally handles end-to-end data across the entire supply chain. Information on raw material sourcing, production‑process records, and transportation history must be managed digitally so that companies can respond instantly to verification requests from foreign customs authorities. This data‑driven management framework is not merely a compliance tool; it becomes a critical source of competitive advantage by enhancing the overall reliability of the supply chain.

3) Need for Policy Support of Governments

For small and medium‑sized enterprises, it is often difficult to secure the specialized personnel and IT infrastructure needed to develop tariff strategies and build supply chain data management systems. Therefore, a national‑level support framework is essential. In particular, establishing a supply chain traceability platform, training experts in customs and rules of origin, and supporting overseas strategic logistics hubs can become key policy tasks that strengthen the country’s export competitiveness.

5. Conclusion

The United States’ protectionist tariff policy has become a structural variable in the global trade environment. Tariffs are no longer merely a temporary policy tool but act as a key factor reshaping the structure of global supply chains. In this context, logistics strategies are also evolving away from a sole focus on transportation efficiency toward an integrated management of tariffs, rules of origin, and supply chain transparency.

Ultimately, securing competitiveness amid changes in the global trade order requires a hybrid approach that simultaneously considers tariff strategy, supply chain management, and logistics operations. Particularly when both tariff policies and supply chain regulations are being tightened together, it is essential for firms to develop integrated supply chain management capabilities rather than operating in isolated functional silos.

Amid these changes, the role of logistics companies is expanding beyond simple transportation services to supply chain management partners. Samsung SDS leverages its global network and data‑driven logistics operation capabilities to support companies in maintaining stable and reliable supply chain operations.

Prof.

Kim Seok-Oh

Adjunct Professor from Department of Global Trade at Namseoul University/Chairman of International Customs and Trade Advisory Center
Major Research Achievements:

• - A study on systematic improvement measures for HSK codes of export items to promote agricultural industry exports (2025, Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs)
  
• - A study on response measures regarding tariffs and rules of origin in the agricultural and food sector following the U.S. administration's tariff policy (2025, Ministry of Agriculture, Food and Rural Affairs)
  
• - The impact of increased direct overseas purchases on domestic industries and response measures (2024, Korea Customs Service)

Adjunct Professor from Department
of Global Trade at Namseoul University/
Chairman of International Customs and
Trade Advisory Center
Major Research Achievements:
- A study on systematic improvement
measures for HSK codes of export
items to promote agricultural
industry exports
(2025, Ministry of Agriculture
Food and Rural Affairs)

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