Market Intelligence [Oct. 2023] Quarterly Logistics Market Review and Outlook

U.S. August CPI is up 3.7% y-o-y, CPI in September to be determined by oil price developments.
China PMI is at 50.2, it enters the expansionary phase for the first time in 6 months, the impact of central bank rate cuts and other policies to stimulate the economy.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

90.7Up(7.1)

Oil price down -21% from peak (114.67), Oil hits $90 for the first time in ‘23 as Saudi Arabia and Russia extend cuts, Global demand for crude oil began to exceed supply in June ‘23, and oil prices are expected to remain elevated through Q4 ‘23

SCFI comprehensive index is expected to be 922~946 in the 4Q of ’23 and 856~957 in the 1Q of '24.
Freight forecast 4Q of '23 : USWC $1,640 / USEC $2,440 / North Europe $640

[Asia]
Liner capacity space tighten during peak season Aug-Oct.
Spot rate static/dip slightly after peak season but shippers begin ramping up orders ahead.

[Americas]
- Spot rate reached higher due to seasonal merchandise, draught restriction on Panama Canal, combined with blank sailing and Vancouver/Prince Port labor issue.
- Market predicts Aug spot rates had hit a ceiling and will hold through Sep to early of Oct.

[Europe]
- 2M blank sailing to support rate increases.
- Shipper opts to delay signing new long-term contracts.

HKG-US: 4Q'23 $4.6 to $4.9, 1Q'24 $4.6 to $4.9, 2Q'24 $4.3 to $4.7
HKG-EUR: 4Q'23 $3.8 to $4.0, 1Q'24 $3.4 to $3.6, 2Q'24 $3.8 to $4.0

[Asia]
The robust exports of China cross-border e-commerce support China’s air cargo demand.
China’s passenger recovery boosts both demand and supply, 76.5% of pre-pandemic same month(Aug). Renewed declines in export orders prolonged the decline in air cargo markets.

[Americas]
US importers “most customers do not plan to significantly increase shipments in the fourth quarter”.

[Europe]
Tight capacity from Vietnam due to e-commerce volumes from China before and after the Chinese holiday period caused prices to surge th Europe(VTM → EUR : +48.2% in 2 weeks)