Market Intelligence [Dec. 2023] Logistics market review and outlook for Nov

In October2023, OECD Leading Economic Indicators for the US(99.5) and Europe(99.3) continued to be in contraction, China(102.4) continued to expand above 100 for 7months since March.

※ If it is in an upward with more than 100 based on 100, it is evaluated as an expansion phase, if it is in a downward with less than 100, a contraction phase.
※ Europe : France, Germany, Italy, UK

Nov '23 US PMI index was 46.7, 13th consecutive months of contraction.
Europe contracted for 17th consecutive month at 44.2.
China continues to contract, falling for a second month in Nov to 49.4 following Oct’s decline

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

77.4하락(8.1)

WTI price fell after OPEC+ shocked the market with disagreement over production, fundamentally bearish with rising US inventories.
In Nov ‘23, average WTI was $77.4 per barrel.

1,023상승(82)

The SCFI saw an increase in Nov as carriers tried to lift up freight rates for coming contract negotiation season.
Europe, Middle East, Oceania and South America trades gain the most to drive the SCFI increase.

The Composite Index forecasts 938-975 points for 1Q 2024
Freight forecast 1Q 2024 : USWC $1,581 / USEC $2,291 / North Europe $687

[Asia]
As the war between Israel and Hamas continues, Hapag-Lloyd palns to impose a WRS(War Risk Surcharge) of $40 per TEU on Northern Europe and Mediterranean routes and $80 per TEU on other routes from January 1 next year on cargo to and from Israel. ZIM is also imposing WRP(War Risk Premium) on cargo to and form Israel in November (12/1, DC Velocity)

[Americas]
Due to the worsening situation in the Panama Canal, Ocean Alliance’s AWE5 and AWE8 services connecting Far East Asia and the East Coast of the US are passing through the distant Suez Canal instead of the Panama Canal when backhauling, and this trend is also observed in other shipping companies (11/29, The Loadstar)

[Europe]
As the EU ETS(Emission Trading System) goes into effect next year, each shipping company plans to impose a surcharge from 1Q of next year, but the difference in amount by shipping company is causing complaints from shippers 11/29, Seatrade Maritime)

HKG-EUR 4.63상승(0.52) HKG-US 5.95상승(0.68)

HKG-EUR ($4.63) up 4 months in a row, HKG-US ($5.95) up 4 months in a row
SHA-EUR ($4.40) up 4 months in a row, SHA-US ($5.93) up 3 months in a row

HKG-US forecast $4.6 -$5.0 in the 1Q of ’24, $4.3~$4.7 in the 2Q, $4.0 -$4.1 in the 3Q
HKG-EUR forecast $3.3 ~ $3.5 in the 1Q of ‘24, $3.7~$3.9 in the 2Q, $3.5 -$3.6 in the 3Q

[Asia]
Jeju Air has introduced its 2nd cargo plane in 1year and 6 months after becoming the first domestic low-cost carrier(LCC) to introduce a dedicated cargo plane in June last year. I addition to expanding its existing routes, Jeju Air is considering entering new market in Japan and Vietnam, including Incheon-Osaka and Ho Chi Minh City. (12/4, EBN)

[Europe]
DHL Global Forwarding(DHL GF) paints a broadly stable picture for air cargo demand in its November ‘Air Freight State of the Industry’ report. While overall demand was stable, the situation varied form region to region, with volumes out of Europe and North America pulling down global figures. (11/29, Air Cargo News)

[Americas]
With the announcement of acquisition of Farrow, a well-reputed Canada-based customs broker, Kuehne+Nagel takes a step forward in its Roadmap 2026 growth ambitions. Headquartered in Windsor, Ontario, Canada, Farrow’s outstanding service is supported by 830 employees in 41 locations across Canada and the USA. (11/28, kuehne-nagel.com)