Global News FreightWaves Truckload demand jumps
in front of Labor Day

Zach Strickland, FW Market Expert & Market Analyst, Saturday, August 30, 2025
Original Article: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/truckload-demand-jumps-in-front-of-labor-day
Articles Reproduced by Permission of FreightWaves

Chart of the Week: Outbound Tender Volume Index – USA SONAR: OTVI.USA

The national Outbound Tender Volume Index (OTVI), which measures truckload demand, jumped 6.5% in the week and a half leading up to the Labor Day holiday weekend. While an increase is typical for this period, the scale of this rise is unusual. Let’s break down what this means for the truckload market and overall supply chain health.

Rising tender volumes ahead of a holiday is nothing new, but rarely are they this pronounced. Post-pandemic patterns show relatively modest increases: 2–3% in 2022 and 2023, and less than 2% in 2024.

The last time we saw a similar setup was in 2019, when volumes rose 6.6% over 19 days. The current increase is sharper and faster, making it significant even when adjusted for seasonal norms.

One reason this surge looks outsized is because the OTVI was climbing out of an all-time low for August. On August 12, the index hit 9,701 — about 1.5% lower than the previous August record low of 9,875, set in 2018.

This may suggest some shippers were caught off guard with leaner inventory levels than intended. For trucking companies, that could be a positive sign: shippers have been balancing precariously between excess and shortage amid tariff and trade policy uncertainty. August typically isn’t a month associated with urgency in freight, which raises the possibility that this move foreshadows what could happen later in the year. If demand surprises to the upside or shippers enter peak season understocked, trucking demand could accelerate.

The biggest drag on the truckload market in 2025 has been the loss of long-haul freight to intermodal. Longer lead times and forward inventory strategies have made rail a more cost-effective option for many companies, with slower service often seen as a benefit given rising warehousing costs.

Most of the recent increase in demand has come from loads moving more than 800 miles. Markets like Los Angeles and Houston have led the way, but long-haul volumes have picked up across much of the country in the final week of August.

Seasonally, long-haul truckload demand usually increases at this time of year, but this year’s growth has been larger and earlier than expected.

It’s important to note this is not freight shifting back from intermodal to trucking.

Loaded container volumes (ORAILL) have remained stable, growing 1–2% year-over-year over the past month. That suggests this is pure demand growth, not just mode conversion. Economically, this is encouraging — it indicates steady consumption. In fact, some companies, including Walmart, have raised their guidance for the remainder of the year.

Truckload tender rejections (OTRI) began climbing on August 18, while spot rates (NTI) didn’t rise until this past Wednesday — but when they did, the increase was sharp. With tender lead times averaging more than three days, it’s natural for rejections to move first, while spot activity, with lead times closer to one day, lags behind.

Since the pandemic, the OTRI has barely moved around Labor Day, rising only 50 bps or less in 2022 and 2023. This year, however, it was already up 115 bps by last Thursday. Spot rates actually fell through the Labor Day weekend in 2024 but rose 3% in 2023. As of last Thursday, rates were up 1.3% — with several days still to go.

This is not a definitive signal that the soft truckload market of the past three years is over. But it does reinforce the idea that the market is increasingly vulnerable to uneven demand — a common dynamic in fourth quarters.

Shippers have been forced into a reactive stance, leaving them less prepared for sudden economic shifts. While the economy itself remains uncertain and far from robust, unpredictability is enough to trigger volatility in trucking. Sustainable recovery will require a steadier economic backdrop — but in the meantime, transportation service providers should expect swings like this to remain part of the landscape.

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