Global News FreightWaves Winter Storm Fern tightens
U.S. trucking capacity,
prolonging holiday season rate surge

John Paul Hampstead, Wednesday, January 28, 2026
Original Article: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/winter-storm-fern-tightens-u-s-trucking-capacity-prolonging-holiday-season-rate-surge
Articles Reproduced by Permission of FreightWaves

Map: WeatherOptics supply chain risk management data in SONAR

Harrisburg, Chicago, and Dallas tightened considerably

As the remnants of Winter Storm Fern linger across much of the United States, supply chain professionals are grappling with tightened trucking capacity that has effectively extended the elevated rate environment from the 2025 holiday peak season into late January 2026. What was anticipated as a post-holiday cooldown in spot rates has instead turned into a prolonged squeeze, driven by widespread disruptions from heavy snow, ice, and subzero temperatures that impacted over 40 states.

The storm, which barreled through from January 23-25, dumped more than 20 inches of snow in some areas, caused thousands of flight cancellations, and led to power outages affecting millions. Key freight corridors in the Southern Plains, Mid-South, Mid-Atlantic, and Northeast bore the brunt, with interstates like I-20 and I-85 facing closures due to ice and downed power lines. This has forced carriers to implement detours, surcharges, and reduced operations, exacerbating capacity constraints in dry van, refrigerated (reefer), and flatbed segments.

(The SONAR Tender Rejection Index measures the percentage of outbound loads tendered by shippers and subsequently rejected by carriers, and indicates relative capacity or the relationship between demand and supply. Chart: SONAR.)

Tender rejection percentages suddenly increased in major freight markets, especially Chicago, Harrisburg, and Dallas, in the lead-up to the storm and persisted afterward. Carriers are now rejecting 10.7% of loads out of Chicago and 11.9% of loads out of Harrisburg. The national average rejection rate has spiked to 11.5%.

Now, in the storm’s aftermath, capacity is tightening rapidly. Trucking operations in states like Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia have seen closures and limited service at distribution centers. FreightWaves SONAR data shows a brief pause in the spot market, with the National Truckload Index (NTI) seven-day average dipping to $2.59 per mile all-in, down from $2.61 on January 19. Yet disrupted transportation networks caused a small rebound back to $2.60 per mile, extending elevated rate conditions.

(The National Truckload Index is SONAR’s national average truckload spot rate, inclusive of fuel. Chart: SONAR)

This tightening is sustaining the higher rates seen during the holiday peak, when e-commerce surges and inventory restocking pushed spot rates up 10% year-over-year in December 2025. Normally, January brings a 15-20% drop in demand as retail winds down, but Fern’s disruptions— including delayed grain shipments on iced rivers like the Mississippi and backups at air cargo hubs in Atlanta, Dallas-Fort Worth, and Memphis—have created a ripple effect. Shippers are now scrambling for restocking and cleanup loads, boosting demand while safety concerns sideline drivers and equipment.

“Winter Storm Fern is shifting the market! Reefer loads are up as shippers protect freight. Watch for a spot rate jump this week!” wrote The Trucker (@TruckerTalk on X), highlighting the surge in reefer demand.

Broader logistics strains amplify the issue. UPS and FedEx suspended operations at key hubs. Rail lines, such as BNSF’s Midwest routes, faced snow-related delays, pushing more volume onto trucks. Federal hours-of-service waivers in 40 affected states provide some relief, but experts like Knight-Swift CEO Adam Miller point to ongoing capacity reductions from regulatory enforcement as an underlying factor: “Capacity reduction is clearly underway.”

For shippers, this means higher costs and longer lead times. Just-in-time models for retailers like Walmart and Amazon are strained, potentially leading to stockouts of essentials. Agricultural and manufacturing sectors, reliant on southern corridors, face amplified risks from delayed inputs.

Expect continued volatility in the rest of the first quarter. While the NTI is up 18 cents per mile year-over-year, rejection rates rose 443 basis points to 11.5%, signaling carriers’ leverage. With La Niña patterns forecasting more severe weather, supply professionals and transportation managements should keep a close eye on tender acceptance rates and routing guide compliance, preparing themselves to adjust rates in case capacity continues to become harder to find.