White Papers Q1 2026
Logistics Market Outlook

Definitions of Key Concepts

📊 Macroeconomic Indicators for Logistics Markets

PMI (Purchasing Managers’ Index)

A key indicator of economic trends in manufacturing and services; above 50 indicates growth, below 50 indicates slowdown. Used as a leading indicator to forecast global logistics demand and production activity.

CPI (Consumer Price Index)

Measures changes in consumer prices and serves as a benchmark for inflation. Rising inflation can reduce consumption and logistics demand, making it a key indicator for market analysis.

🚢 Ocean Freight Key Terms and Rate Indicators

SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index)

A composite index of container freight rates from Shanghai across major routes and a benchmark index used to gauge global ocean freight rates. Used to assess supply-demand dynamics and freight rate trends in the ocean freight market.

Shipping Capacity

Refers to cargo space available on vessels and determines supply in ocean freight. Increased capacity can put downward pressure on freight rates.

Blank Sailing

A strategy of canceling sailings to counter reduced demand or defend freight rates, which is used to mitigate ocean freight rate declines by managing supply

✈️ Air Freight Rates and Market Indicators

BAI (Baltic Air Freight Index)

Reflects air cargo rates across major global routes and is a benchmark to figure out air freight rates market volatility and trends.

TAC Index (Air Freight Rate Index)

Air freight rates index that is calculated based on real transaction data, reflecting actual pricing and supply-demand changes.

🌏 Global Supply Chain Trends Terminology

China+X Strategy

A strategy to diversify production from China to Southeast Asia and India. Serves as a key driver of global supply chain restructuring and shifts in logistics flows.

Emerging Asia

Refers to emerging Asian regions such as Vietnam, India, and Malaysia, which are key growth hubs where global logistics demand is rapidly increasing alongside production diversification.

Logistics Trends Explained Through Key Questions

• Q1.

  Will ocean freight rates have a chance to rebound in 2026?

  Upside potential for freight rates is expected to remain limited under a supply-dominant market structure. This is because global container fleet supply growth in 2026 is projected at around 3–5%, while demand growth is expected to remain at only 1.8–3.5%. In particular, if the Red Sea route normalizes within the year, there is a risk that capacity previously absorbed by detour routes will re-enter the market, further intensifying downward pressure on freight rates.

  More important than the numbers themselves is the strategic shift among carriers. Carriers are no longer relying on reactive measures as in the past, but are using flexible capacity management —such as blank sailings and slow steaming—as a routine means to defend profitability.

• Q2.

  Why is the "China+X" strategy so important in air logistics?

  This is because U.S.-China trade tensions and strengthened tariff regulations are fragmenting production bases from China to Southeast Asia and India (Emerging Asia). In fact, as of 2025, air cargo volume between China and North America decreased by 9%, while air cargo demand in the Emerging Asia region grew by 11%. In particular, demand for high-value tech hardware is increasingly concentrated in Vietnam (+26.6%) and Malaysia (+13.2%).

• Q3.

  What are the most important risk factors in the logistics market in 2026?

  The key risk factors in the 2026 logistics market are changes in tariff policy, geopolitical uncertainty, and structural oversupply. In particular, U.S. tariff policy and the normalization of the Red Sea route act as key variables directly affecting global logistics demand and supply flows.

  In addition, the global container market continues to show a structure in which supply growth exceeds demand, meaning that a simple recovery in demand alone may limit the potential for a market rebound.

  In this environment, the market is shifting toward a structure where risk response capability has a greater impact on competitiveness than demand recovery itself.

• Q4.

  Which transport mode is more advantageous, ocean or air?

  In 2026, rather than one transport mode being absolutely advantageous, the choice of transport modes depends on cargo characteristics and supply chain strategy.

  Ocean transport has strengths in rate stability and cost efficiency, while air transport is expected to maintain demand centered on high-value and urgent cargo.

  In particular, as ocean freight rates stabilize, there is a possibility that some air cargo will shift back to ocean transport.

  Ultimately, companies need to adopt a strategic approach that combines both ocean and air transport rather than relying on a single mode.

• Q5.

  Which industries will drive logistics demand in 2026?

  Logistics demand in 2026 is being reshaped around AI and tech hardware.

  Key growth items include AI servers, semiconductors, electronics, pharmaceuticals, and e-commerce cargo, all of which have both time-sensitive and high-value characteristics.

  This trend supports air transport demand and, combined with production base diversification, is driving logistics demand growth centered in the Emerging Asia region.

  Accordingly, changes in demand structure toward high-value cargo are becoming more important than simple increases in cargo volume in the logistics market.

• Q6.

  How should companies prepare their logistics strategies for 2026?

  In 2026, supply chain strategies focused on managing volatility are becoming more important than cost-reduction approaches.

  Companies need to consider diversifying production bases in line with the China+X strategy, optimizing transport mode mix, securing capacity through long-term contracts, and ensuring real-time logistics visibility.

  In particular, in an environment where tariff policies and geopolitical risks are expanding, supply chain flexibility and how quickly we respond have a significant impact on competitiveness.

  To respond to these changes, it is necessary to establish a strategic logistics operating system based on the assumption of uncertainty.