Square Insights Expansion of Hormuz Strait Risks:
3 Global Logistics Issues
You Need to Check Now

1. Status | Escalating Tensions in the Strait of Hormuz and the Impact on Global Logistics

The Strait of Hormuz is a strategic maritime passage that connects the Persian Gulf and the Arabian Sea, serving as a strategic chokepoint through which more than about 20 % of the world’s seaborne crude oil and roughly 2–30 % of LNG shipments pass^[1]. As of April 2026, more than a month after a military clash that began at the end of February, the area continues to face maritime‑safety risks such as vessel attacks, route restrictions, and navigation warnings. During certain periods, commercial vessel traffic has dropped sharply compared with normal times, or sailing restrictions have been imposed, widening uncertainty in the global maritime transport market ^[2].

Currently, limited passage is permitted only for vessels from certain countries or that meet specific conditions, but major shipping lines continue to monitor operational risks closely, and route adjustments or schedule changes are being considered on some services ^[3].

These geopolitical risks do not remain confined to transportation issues in a single region; they can affect freight‑rate structures, lead times, and supply‑chain operational planning across the entire global maritime transport network.

2. Three Logistics Issues Shippers Should Watch

1) Changes in Freight Structure

If military tensions rise, the war‑risk costs associated with vessel operations may increase. This cost increase also affects the maritime freight structure and can be reflected to shippers in the following ways ^[4]:

• Application of a War Risk Surcharge
  Additional charges are levied on routes that pass through war‑risk areas; initially applied uniformly, but later may be differentiated by vessel, route, and destination. ^[5]
• Additional adjustment of fuel surcharges
  Beyond Middle‑East routes, fuel‑price fluctuations on major global lanes can lead to further adjustments of the Bunker Adjustment Factor (BAF) or emergency fuel surcharges.
• Incurring alternative‑route transportation costs
  To avoid passage through the strait, using alternative ports or detour shipments can generate extra logistics costs such as transshipment, inland transport, and multimodal transport. These factors can amplify short‑term volatility in global maritime freight, not just on specific Middle‑East lanes.

2) Possibility of Route Adjustments and Lead‑time Changes

If maritime safety risks increase, some carriers may consider reducing voyages in the affected sea area, reviewing insurance terms, adjusting speed (slow steaming), or operating diversion routes. In particular, in the Middle East region, carriers might cancel calls at ports near the Strait of Hormuz or consider alternative routes. The following operational adjustments could occur:

• Cancellation of calls at the Strait of Hormuz and major Middle‑East ports
  When security risks rise, some carriers may reduce or temporarily suspend calls at these ports.
• Expansion of diversion route operations
  To avoid risk, carriers may use nearby ports or alternative routes.
• Potential declaration of End of Voyage (EOV)
  If sailing risks become high, a carrier may designate a specific port as the final destination and cease transportation beyond that point by declaring an EOV.

When such adjustments occur, lead‑time changes of roughly 10–14 days are likely. Additionally, if cargo volume becomes concentrated on certain ports, the following operational risks may also increase:

• Increased port congestion
• Delays in transshipment
• Instability in vessel supply

3) Increasing Supply Chain Risks for Time-sensitive Cargo

If lead time volatility increases, companies operating a just-in-time (JIT) production-based supply chain may be likely to be affected in their production schedules. In particular, the following industries may be sensitive to changes in transportation schedules.

• Automotive industry parts
• Semiconductors and electronic components
• Precision manufacturing parts
• Key materials for production line

For these types of shipments, proactive strategies are important as they can impact not only transportation delays but also production planning and inventory management strategies.

3. Shipper Response Strategy | 3 Things to Check in Supply Chain Risk Situations

Global supply chains are influenced by various variables such as geopolitical risks, climate factors, and port operations. Especially in situations like the present, a response system based on real-time information is crucial.

1) Securing real-time logistics visibility

By tracking the location and status of in-transit cargo in real time, it is possible to identify lead time variability in early phase. Through this, the following key supply chain decisions can be made more flexibly.

• Production schedule adjustment
• Inventory management plan revision
• Establishing delivery response strategy

2) Reviewing alternative transportation routes and multimodal transport

In case the risk of a specific route increases, the following alternative transportation strategies can be considered. These response strategies can help minimize supply chain disruptions.

• Alternative port utilization (e.g., use of alternative ports such as UAE's Fujairah, Oman's Sohar, etc.)
• Change of transshipment hub (e.g., transshipment at Middle Eastern hub ports such as Dubai, Jeddah, etc.)
• Sea-Air multimodal transport (e.g., Air transfer transport via Dubai and Doha)

3) Building a supply chain risk response system

In geopolitical risk situations, a pre-established emergency response system is important. The main response strategies are as follows.

• Contingency plan establishment
• Risk monitoring system establishment
• Supply chain data-driven decision making

Recently, the use of digital logistics platforms that utilize global logistics data to identify supply chain risks early and establish response strategies is also gradually expanding. This is because, in situations where various variables such as geopolitical risks, changes in port operations, and fluctuations in shipping schedules occur simultaneously, it is becoming increasingly important for companies to secure real-time data-driven logistics visibility.

For example, Samsung SDS monitors supply chain risk situations by comprehensively analyzing global logistics data, news, and disaster information through its digital logistics platform Cello Square. In addition, it operates a War Room for real-time response, providing foundational information such as real-time vessel locations, delay days, and cargo status to support customer decision-making. It also analyzes changes in transportation schedules and port operations to review alternative transportation routes and supports integrated transportation scenarios combining sea, air, and inland transport.

In this way, data-driven digital logistics platforms play a role in increasing the speed of companies' supply chain decision-making in geopolitical risk situations by ensuring real-time visibility into changes in transportation conditions and supporting the comparison and analysis of various transportation scenarios.

Q&A | Frequently Asked Questions

Q. How can I check the impact of cargo currently in transit?

A. You can check the transportation status through ship location information (AIS), shipping company announcements, and port operation status. By utilizing a digital logistics platform, you can more easily check updates on cargo location and changes in estimated arrival time (ETA).

Q. Is it okay to continue with the Middle East route transportation?

A. In most cases, it is rare for ocean transportation to be immediately halted, but if military tensions rise, there may be increases in freight rates, route adjustments, and delays in transportation schedules. Therefore, it is important to continuously monitor shipping company announcements and the transportation situation.

Q. What preparations are needed to prevent production disruptions?

A. A common response strategy is to review safety stock levels and consider alternative transportation scenarios, including air freight or intermodal transport, for time-sensitive shipments.

Q. How likely is the possibility of rate increases?

A. In case of increased geopolitical risks, there may be a War Risk Surcharge or an increase in insurance premiums, and some routes may experience greater freight rate volatility.

[References]
[1] U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) https://www.eia.gov/international/analysis/special-topics/World_Oil_Transit_Chokepoints
[2] Container Magazine https://container-mag.com/2026/03/06/hormuz-shipping-crisis-container-lines-network-redesign
[3] DC Velocity https://www.dcvelocity.com/iran-war-cma-cgm-opens-alternate-multimodal-freight-routes-to-bypass-strait-of-hormuz
[4] Reuters https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/maritime-insurance-premiums-surge-iran-conflict-widens-2026-03-06/
[5] FreightWaves https://www.freightamigo.com/en/blog/marine-insurance/war-risk-surcharge

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