Market Intelligence [Apr. 2025] Logistics Market Intelligence Quarterly Report

Eurozone PMI climbs to a 26-month high of 48.6 amid hopes for an infrastructure boost.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

- Political uncertainty and weak domestic demand are expected to slow economic recovery.
- U.S. auto tariffs raise export risks, with weak economic growth forecasted.

- China continues its active stimulus measures to sustain economic recovery.
- Trade conflict escalates as China responds to U.S. reciprocal tariff announcement with retaliatory tariffs.

- The U.S. reciprocal tariff measures are expected to have a negative impact on the overall economy.
- Exports to the U.S. are expected to decline, leading to a drop in export growth rates.

- Weakening consumer sentiment and declining manufacturing activity raise concerns over economic slowdown.
- Inflationary pressures are expected to persist due to uncertainties surrounding Trump 2.0’s tariff policies.

- The slowdown in Eurozone’s March CPI boosts expectations for further ECB rate cuts.
- Increased defense spending is expected to boost economic growth in Europe.

Demand growth is expected to slow amid tariff risks and the gradual resumption of Red Sea routes, with shippers' oversupply management emerging as a key focus.

Container supply and demand growth in 2025 is expected to be 6.2% and 2.7%, with oversupply continuing. The supply-demand gap is expected to narrow to 1% by 2026, but oversupply will persist.

[Asia] US Intensifies Policy against Chinese Maritime & Shipbuilding
- Sanctions against the Chinese shipbuilding are applied to all global carriers, spreading impact across the shipping industry.
- It is impossible to replace Chinese ships within a short term, and China's dominance in shipbuilding will not weaken.

[Americas] Tariffs Pressure Global Supply Chains to Reorganize
- The U.S. tariff uncertainty causes major disruption in China-centric supply chains.
- The U.S. relies on China for consumer goods production, and it is difficult to find alternatives for intermediate goods. China is expected to remain a key base, but its role will be reduced.

[Europe] The Impact of the French Port Strike
- European ports are experiencing severe congestion due to strikes at Rotterdam’s Hutchison Delta terminal, rail transport delays at the Port of Hamburg, and heavy fog.

Despite a temporary demand drop from Lunar New Year and U.S. tariff shifts, Q1 rate index was 10% higher YoY. Supply shifts for profitability delayed long-term deals and increased short-term contract preference.

According to IATA, the global air cargo market saw modest growth in February 2025, and demand is expected to continue rising moderately in the second quarter.
February's modest year-on-year growth was driven by the Lunar New Year and the brief U.S. de minimis repeal, with demand up 0.4% and capacity up 1.1%.

[Asia] China's Early Lunar New Year (January)
- In the air market, Asia's Lunar New Year heavily impacts demand and supply.
- Early LNY in 2025 caused a demand surge in Jan, driving rate hikes Jan 2025 average rate from CN to US was $5.09/kg, down 20% MoM (Jan 2024 rates dropped 31% MoM).

[Americas] U.S. Enforcement of De Minimis Repeal
- In Feb 2025, U.S. first delayed the repeal due to customs system issues, but proceeded with the de minimis repeal in April (effective May 2).
- U.S. de minimis repeal potential shows reduced supply on China–U.S. routes.

[Europe] European Rates Rise
- Transpacific rates are falling in Q1 2025 due to changes in U.S. de minimis thresholds and tariff increases, while European rates are rising.
- Asia-Europe spot rates in March were $4.28/kg, up 11% year-over-year.