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Cello Square

Market Intelligence [May. 2025] Logistics Market Intelligence Report

Registration dateMAY 15, 2025

Container Freight Rate : SCFI

: SCFI comprehensive index turned downward in mid-April. after rising in late Mar. due to the relocation of US supply.
US rates rebound slightly due to supply adjustments, while Europe’s decline increases due to additional supply.

(Source : Shanghai Shipping Exchange )

Demand & Supply Trend

: Global container shipping demand is expected to stagnate or shrink if the US-China trade war prolongs.
Meanwhile, container fleets are expected to increase by 6.3% YoY, with oversupply expected to continue.

(Source : Clarksons Research)

Regional Trends

: [Asia] Malaysia Bintulu Port draws attention
- Bintulu Port strengthens efforts to become a hub and future base.
- As demand for supply chain relocation to Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia, etc. increases, transshipment volume increases centered on these ports.

: [Americas] Early start of peak season on transpacific due to tariff deferral
- Trump administration's rollback of tariffs on electronics could lead to early start of peak season on transpacific routes.
- As the reciprocal tariffs, excluding China, have been postponed until July 9, companies with production bases in S.E.Asia are on the move to ship as many products as possible within the grace period.

: [Europe] Delays warned as Nordic ports become more crowded
- Maersk warns of increased congestion at ports across N.Europe in April, which could disrupt operational schedules.
- The Port of Antwerp has 41% waiting and 52 ships underway, while the Port of Bremerhaven has 29% waiting and 27 ships waiting to arrive.

TAC Index

: Amid rising uncertainty from the U.S. de minimis removal, Baltic Index drops to '25 low of 1,996 in early May.
In early May '25, Shanghai rate index fell 8.6% YoY, Hong Kong dropped 7.4% YoY.

(Source : TAC Index)

Demand & Supply Trend

: IATA projects 6% demand and 5.4% revenue growth in '25, with the Middle East leading the outlook.
In Jan '25, China's air exports to Europe surged, driven by consumer goods and machinery.

(Source : IATA)

Regional Trends

: [Asia] Vietnam expands list of approved aircraft types
- Vietnam to allow more aircraft imports under new decree to boost global ties.
- Under the decree, aircraft certified by at least one authority FAA (U.S.), TCCA (Canada), FATA (Russia), CAA (UK), EASA (EU), CAAC (China), or Vietnam’s Ministry of Construction—can be imported.

: [Europe] Losing cargo share to Schiphol and Liege
- In Q1, Belgium's Liège Airport handled ~300,000 tons of cargo, up 5.6% YoY, while the Netherlands' Schiphol Airport processed ~345,000 tons, down 8.4% YoY.
- With global air cargo growth averaging 3%, Schiphol's weak performance stands out, making market share loss inevitable.

: [Americas] Temu halts shipments following end of de minimis rule
- On May 2, Temu suspended China–U.S. shipments following the end of the de minimis rule.
- To reduce tariff impact, Temu shifted from China-based imports to a local fulfillment model, with U.S. sales handled by domestic sellers.

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