Global News FreightWaves Air freight rates expected
to spike as Iran war escalates

Eric Kulisch, Sunday, March 01, 2026
Original Article: https://www.freightwaves.com/news/air-freight-rates-expected-to-spike-as-iran-war-escalates
Articles Reproduced by Permission of FreightWaves

Air cargo terminals at Dubai International Airport as seen on Feb. 21, 2019. (Photo: Shutterstock/Sorbis)

FedEx, other freighter airlines, suspend operations and detour flights

(UPDATED: 10:45 p.m. ET)

The war launched by the United States and Israel against Iran on Saturday is already disrupting air cargo traffic in the Middle East, a key freight corridor between Asia and Europe where two of the world’s largest cargo airlines are based, and raising the potential for a rise in air freight rates.

Airlines are suspending flights, rerouting traffic around the conflict zone and unable to use key transload hubs in Dubai, Abu Dhabi and Qatar because of retaliatory missile attacks by Iran. More scheduling changes are anticipated in the days ahead.

Longer routes require more fuel, reducing the amount of cargo aircraft can carry so as not to exceed weight limits. Some airlines are expected to add refueling stops.

“We are expecting some potentially significant move in rates, especially Asia-Europe, if the situation continues with large-scale flight cancellations,” said Neil Wilson, editor of global price reporting agency TAC Index, said in an email exchange.

FedEx (NYSE: FDX) has suspended flights to and from Bahrain, Iran, Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates and Saudi Arabia.

“The safety and well-being of our team members is our highest priority. As a result, pickup and delivery services in Bahrain, Kuwait, Iraq, Qatar and United Arab Emirates have been temporarily suspended until further notice. Shipments to and from other markets throughout the region may experience extended transit times,” the company said in a service __alert__. “We are closely monitoring the situation and will resume services as soon as it is safe to do so.”

UPS has not announced any operational changes, but said in a statement provided to FreightWaves, “We are closely monitoring this fluid situation and using established contingency plans to manage our operations safely and efficiently.”

Qatar Airways, which operates 29 Boeing 777 freighter aircraft and carries huge volumes of cargo on widebody passenger planes, has temporarily halted flights to, and from, Doha due to the closure of Qatar’s airspace. Qatar Airways Cargo offers shippers 13 tons of capacity per day.The airline warned customers to expect flight delays once the airspace re-opens and it resumes operations there. In the meantime, tendered cargo is being held at its hub and other stations around the world.

Emirates Skycargo, the fourth-largest cargo airline by traffic, has similarly suspended flights through Dubai. It operates nearly a dozen Boeing 777 freighters and leases several crewed Boeing 747-400s from third-party carriers. The United Arab Emirates has closed its airspace and Dubai International Airport sustained minor damage to a passenger concourse from an Iranian attack, according to news accounts from the region.

Bahrain’s international airport also suffered minor damage from a drone attack.

Etihad Airlines, which operates five Boeing 777 freighter aircraft in addition to a large fleet of widebody passenger aircraft, has suspended all flights through Abu Dhabi until Monday at 2 a.m. Airlines are monitoring the situation and could choose to extend any flight suspensions.

The cargo arm of Oman Air said it is experiencing limited disruption to some services within the region. Oman Air is a smaller carrier, with nine Boeing 787, 10 Airbus 330, and 32 Boeing 737-800/MAX8 passenger jets, plus one 737-800 converted freighter, according to Flightradar24 data. Services to Europe and the Asia Pacific continue to operate as scheduled, with rerouting implemented and some minor delays. As a precautionary measure, the carriage of perishable cargo has been temporarily restricted, while general cargo operations continue as normal.

Hong Kong-based Cathay Group, a hybrid carrier with 20 Boeing 747 cargo jets, suspended all operations in the Middle East, including passenger services to and from Dubai and Riyadh, as well as freighter services to and from Al Maktoum International Airport in Dubai. Flights typically passing over the affected area are being rerouted, it said.

Data from Netherlands-based consultancy Rotate shows global air cargo capacity is down 18% from last week due to flight suspensions by Middle East carriers and other carriers opting not to serve the Middle East. Freighter operators in Asia pivoting from the Middle East and flying over Russia (depending on sanctions), or central Asia, to reach European destinations, according to Rotate.

Air India has suspended all flights to destinations in the Middle East, as well as many flights to Europe and New York.

United Airlines has cancelled all departures to and from Tel Aviv, Israel through March 6. The airline has also canceled flights through Dubai through March 4. SWISS suspended flights to Dubai through March 4 and to Tel Aviv through March 8. “Until and including 8 March, we will continue to avoid the airspace of Israel, Lebanon, Jordan, Iraq, Iran, Kuwait and Bahrain,” the passenger airline said in a notice.

In addition to suspending flights to the region, European carriers impacted because they must take the longer northern route through central Asia to reach south and east Asia, instead of the southern corridor over Turkey, Iraq and Iran.

Freightos, an international cargo marketplace and freight data provider, said air cargo rates in and out of the Middle East have remained stable so far.

“While the situation is still developing, we can already now advise of significant delays ahead for both shipments already in transit and for upcoming shipments to and from the Middle East. It is also likely that there will be delays on the Asia-Europe trade lane as a result of this,” said Scan Global Logistics in a notice to customers.

Immediate hikes in air cargo rates could be tempered by the fact that Chinese exports are still slow as factories come back online following the Lunar New Year holiday, which means there is more slack in aircraft supply than there will be in a week or two, said Dmitry Kulisch, executive director of Air Cargo APAC Ltd., a Hong Kong freight consolidator. He said cargo rates could be pressured upward too because fewer passenger aircraft will be available to carry cargo as airlines prioritize repositioning aircraft within their networks to restart operations once the war ends.

FedEx, other freighter airlines, suspend operations and detour flights

Meanwhile, on the ocean front, container shipping lines Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC and CMA CGM are ceasing services to and diverting vessels away from the Strait of Hormuz and the region, with CMA CGM introducing a $4,000 emergency surcharge per forty-foot container for services to the region. Hapag Lloyd announced a war risk surcharge of $1,500 per 20-foot equivalent unit for cargo transiting the Arabian/Persian Gulf, effective March 2. Reefer and special containers will be charged at $3,500 per TEU.

Marsk also cautioned customers about possible service disruptions in the UAE, Oman and Qatar.

Iranian Revolutionary Guards attacked two oil tankers on Sunday. Four seafarers on the MT Skylight were injured and transferred ashore for medical treatment after their vessel was attacked in the Strait of Hormuz, according to officials in Oman and the Palau Ship Registry.

DP World has suspended operations at the port of Jebel Ali in Dubai after an aerial interception caused a fire there Saturday night.

Iran-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen have threatened to resume strikes. In response, carriers that had restarted some Red Sea sailings have diverted vessels back around the Cape of Good Hope, postponing industry plans to return to the shortcut between Asia and Europe.

The Freight & Trade Alliance and the Australian Peak Shippers Association, representing logistics providers and cargo owners in Australia, said Sunday night “the situation is already having direct and measurable impacts on Australian supply chains, with disruptions to air cargo connectivity, container shipping schedules, and the rapid imposition of significant conflict‑related surcharges by major international carriers.”

International supply chains have buffeted by geopolitical events in recent years, including the Ukraine war, the Israel-Hamas war and the proliferation of global tariffs triggered by the United States.