Market Intelligence [May. 2026]
Logistics Market Intelligence Report

Registration dateMAY 18, 2026

SCFI Composite Index

: The SCFI Composite Index in Week 19 reached 1,954, up 2.2% week-on-week, marking continued upward momentum since Week 17. Prolonged Middle East risks and rising oil prices have expanded bunker surcharges, driving freight rates higher.

The USWC route maintained its rising trend since Week 17, reaching 2,826 in Week 19, up 3.8% week-on-week. Carriers' capacity controls and rate hike strategies have been swiftly reflected in the market, sustaining stronger growth than other routes. The USEC route similarly continued its upward trend since Week 17, reaching 3,812 in Week 19, up 3.3% week-on-week, with the high operational costs of long-haul routes maintaining freight levels above other lanes.

The North Europe and Mediterranean indices showed modest gains since Week 17, recording 1,596 and 2,747 respectively in Week 19. However, their April averages declined by 3.7% and 4.6% from March, reflecting continued weakness in European demand. The Middle East route declined from its Week 15 peak, recording 3,925 in Week 19, but rates remain elevated, with the April average up 27.8% from March, demonstrating the persistent impact of Middle East risks.

(Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast

: The SCFI Composite Index is likely to undergo minor corrections across most routes in the short term, as Middle East risks and fuel cost burdens have been priced in and further upward momentum has weakened.

USWC and USEC routes are expected to remain stable. Following recent rate surges, increased vessel deployment and limited demand recovery are likely to act as correction factors.

The Mediterranean route is also expected to remain stable, with limited recovery in European demand and continued capacity pressure suggesting the correction trend since March may persist.

The Middle East route is expected to continue its correction from the Week 15 peak. However, ongoing Strait of Hormuz transit restrictions and rerouting burdens are likely to keep levels relatively high.

(Source: Samsung SDS Brightics)

Demand & Supply Trend

: Global container demand growth in 2026 is forecast at 2.6%, slowing from 4.6% the previous year. Disrupted operations from Middle East risks, rising transportation costs, and U.S. tariff uncertainty continue to limit the pace of trade recovery.

Q2 2026 Asia–North America demand is forecast to grow 1.3% year-on-year, with a limited rebound expected from the partial resumption of cargo delayed by Q1 Middle East risks. Q2 Asia–Europe demand is forecast to decline 0.9% year-on-year, as European economic slowdown weakens volume growth following Q1 shipment concentration, with high base effects from last year's volumes also weighing on the route.

The 2026 global fleet is forecast to grow 4.7% year-on-year. While new vessel deliveries are slowing compared to last year, structural oversupply continues to exceed demand. Prolonged Middle East risks have expanded rerouting and slow-steaming, generating short-term capacity absorption effects, but these are insufficient to resolve structural oversupply.

(Source: Clarksons, Samsung SDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

[Asia] Growing Port Throughput and Strengthening Hub Competitiveness

-China's major ports continue to see growing foreign throughput, maintaining baseline volumes centered on intra-regional and transshipment cargo despite weakening external demand. Xiamen Port is expanding partnerships with global terminal operators to strengthen competitiveness, with future expansion of transshipment and intermodal functions expected. However, ongoing U.S. tariffs and Middle East risks suggest that long-haul exports from China will continue to differentiate by route.

[Americas] Operational Stabilization Burdens Persist Despite Port Infrastructure Investment

- The U.S. is expanding investment in port handling capacity and inland connectivity to ease port congestion and stabilize supply chains. New York/New Jersey face growing operational burdens from empty container backlogs and inland transport delays, making empty container release and return management a key challenge. For North America, efficiency improvements matter more than raw volume growth, and managing vessel waiting times and inland bottlenecks will be critical to service stability.

[Europe] Sustained Demand Weakness and Continued Rate Corrections

-North Europe and Mediterranean rates have remained weaker than other routes since March, reflecting limited demand recovery and continued capacity pressure. Despite ongoing Red Sea rerouting, demand is insufficient to absorb capacity, preventing sustained upward rate momentum. European routes may see further minor corrections in May, with rate rebounds likely to remain limited until demand recovery emerges notably.

TAC Index

: The Baltic Air Freight Index in Week 18 reached 2,772, up 4.1% week-on-week and 32.7% year-on-year, with continued strength. The April average index reached 2,627, up 23.1% month-on-month and 22.6% year-on-year, reflecting supply disruptions and surging fuel costs. The April rate surge was driven less by demand growth than by supply contraction and rising costs, with rate pressure concentrated across Middle East transit routes.

Long-haul rates from Southeast Asia, Northeast Asia, and India all posted double-digit gains. Vietnam, India, Korea, Hong Kong, and China origins all maintained high rates on long-haul North America and Europe routes, sustaining broad-based strength across Asia origins. Northeast Asia rates continued rising as semiconductor and IT cargo demand combined with China-origin e-commerce demand absorbed available capacity, with Korea–North America up 21.6% and Korea–Europe up 23.6%. Long-haul routes from China were supported by AI server and e-commerce demand: China–North America rose 24.9% month-on-month and 24.0% year-on-year, while China–Europe rose 5.4% month-on-month and 35.1% year-on-year.

(Source: TAC Index)

Samsung SDS TAC Forecast

: In May, the air cargo market will see supply normalization and fuel surcharges play more critical roles than demand, helping to prevent sharp rate declines. Middle Eastern carrier capacity has partially recovered, led by UAE-flagged airlines, though full network normalization is proceeding gradually.

Following April's surge, the air freight composite index is expected to show moderating growth, maintaining elevated rates year-on-year with route-by-route differentiation. North America–bound rates retain upward potential from AI server and semiconductor demand, with modest gains expected to give way to gradual stabilization. Europe–bound rates are likely to see some correction from April highs, but fuel and rerouting burdens will limit the pace of decline.

Rather than further surges across all routes, rates are expected to stabilize at high levels. If fuel prices stabilize, upward pressure may ease.

(Source: Samsung SDS Brightics)

Demand & Supply Trend

: March demand declined 5.3% year-on-year, with weak underlying demand and supply contraction from Middle East transit disruptions intensifying supply-demand tension (though month-on-month demand rose 7.3% on seasonal recovery). Asia–Europe and intra-Asia routes remained firm on manufacturing flows, but weakness on Middle East–linked routes constrained overall demand.

Early April saw continued weakness from Middle East transit disruptions, but late-April demand rose 5.0% over the prior two weeks and 7.0% year-on-year, marking a partial recovery. Latin America–origin floral and perishable cargo for Mother's Day combined with Asia-origin frontloading ahead of China's Labor Day to drive the late-month rebound, while weakness from Middle East and South Asia origins persists. April demand was driven by regional and product-specific rebounds rather than broad recovery, with electronics, semiconductor, and AI server volumes defending certain routes. With Middle East transit disruptions continuing, demand is being reallocated to direct and reroutable lanes, while hub-dependent routes face slower recovery.

March supply declined 6.6% year-on-year, as reduced Middle East–linked capacity combined with seasonal demand normalization to worsen effective supply conditions (month-on-month supply rose 1.5%). Freighter capacity declined only 0.9% year-on-year while belly capacity fell 12.1%; freighters absorbed long-haul volumes on Middle East rerouted routes through operational flexibility, while passenger belly capacity dropped sharply due to Gulf transit reductions.

April supply declined 2.4% year-on-year, with late-month recovery (up 6.0% month-on-month) still falling short of prior-year levels. Global supply share consisted of passenger 40%, freighter 41%, and express 19%, with belly capacity recovery driving the rebound. By region, year-on-year supply rose 5.0% in Asia and 3.0% in North America, while declining 1.0% in Europe and 16.0% in the Middle East/South Asia, showing mixed trends across regions. Asia-origin supply grew year-on-year, but Europe-bound capacity remained tight due to rerouting and fuel burdens; North America–origin supply rose both over the prior two weeks and year-on-year as of late April, showing relative stability on passenger schedule recovery and belly capacity gains. Middle East/South Asia–origin supply posted double-digit declines year-on-year, constraining recovery on key routes due to weakened Gulf hub connectivity.

(Source: WorldACD, IATA, Seabury)

Regional Trends

[Asia] Firm India Demand, Hormuz Uncertainty, and Southeast Asia Operational Risks Emerging Together

-India's Manufacturing PMI remains in mid-50s expansion territory, sustaining firm air export demand centered on industrial goods, electronics, and machinery, with growing utilization of India-origin direct flights to Europe and the Americas. Meanwhile, persistent Strait of Hormuz transit uncertainty is intensifying urgent cargo–focused early bookings and capacity-securing efforts, while Southeast Asia is seeing energy supply instability and cargo terminal congestion at Thai Airways making advance booking and cut-off management increasingly important.

[Americas] AI and Electronics Cargo Inflows and Customs Procedure Changes Drive Concurrent Increases in Operational Burden

-Sustained Asia-origin demand for AI servers, electronics components, and e-commerce cargo is expanding processing pressure at major North American gateways, with West Coast gateways in particular facing backlogs on some routes and elevated transshipment delay risks. In addition, U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP)'s electronic filing for IEEPA tariff refunds has launched, increasing importer and broker post-settlement workloads including ACE Portal registration and electronic filing data verification.

[Europe] Jet Fuel Procurement Response and Accelerating Reconfiguration of Gulf Rerouting Networks in Full Swing

-Middle East energy supply instability has emerged as a core risk for the European aviation industry, with major European airlines and airports focusing on fuel sourcing through joint procurement, inventory monitoring, and government coordination. Reduced Europe–Middle East flights and expanded rerouting are weakening the stability of existing Gulf transit networks, raising the use of alternative transit points such as Southeast Asia and Southern Europe and making shipper’s route diversification and lead time management increasingly important.

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Market Intelligence [May. 2026]Logistics Market Intelligence Report

SCFI Composite Index

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast

Demand & Supply Trend

Regional Trends

TAC Index

Samsung SDS TAC Forecast

Demand & Supply Trend

Regional Trends

Latest Market Updates

Market Intelligence [May. 2026]
Logistics Market Intelligence Report