[Jun 2026] Logistics Market Intelligence Report

SCFI Composite Index

: May's SCFI Composite Index averaged 2,221pt, up 17.9% month-on-month, with surges on major routes including the Americas and Europe driving the upward trend.

May North America rates reached USWC $3,312/FEU and USEC $4,421/FEU, up 29.1% and 24.8% month-on-month respectively, with shipments anticipating July U.S. tariff policy changes combining with pre-BAF adjustment demand to drive strength.

North Europe and Mediterranean rose 26.2% and 24.5% respectively, while ECSA surged 77.0% to $4,604/TEU, the largest gain across all routes, and Middle East rates rose just 4.8% to $4,206/TEU.

(Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast

: The June SCFI Composite Index is expected to continue its strength on rate increases across all routes and early shipment demand. However, gains may narrow gradually if demand weakens after mid-June.

June North America routes are expected to maintain strength as rate hikes combine with pre-shipments anticipating July U.S. tariff policy changes.

June North Europe and Mediterranean rates are expected to face significant upward pressure as pre-BAF adjustment shipment demand combines with Cape of Good Hope rerouting cost burdens.

June ECSA routes are expected to extend May's surge with further gains, while Middle East routes are expected to continue rising on geopolitical risks and rerouting costs, though already-elevated rate levels will constrain further upside.

(Source: Samsung SDS Brightics)

Demand & Supply Trend

: Global container demand in 2026 is forecast to grow 2.9%, with Middle East risks and U.S. tariff burdens limiting the pace of recovery.

Q2 2026 Asia–North America container demand is forecast to grow 3.5% year-on-year, with pre-rate hike early shipments and inventory replenishment demand driving short-term recovery. Q2 Asia–Europe demand is forecast to grow 3.4% year-on-year, supported by pre-July BAF adjustment early shipments. June demand is expected to strengthen on FAK·PSS·GRI rate hikes and pre-BAF shipment concentration, though this reflects pulled-forward shipments rather than genuine consumption recovery, creating downward pressure on year-on-year growth in Q3.

The 2026 global fleet is forecast to reach 34.6 million TEU, up 4.6% year-on-year, with supply growth exceeding demand growth and sustaining supply burdens. June effective supply is expected to remain tight as pre-rate hike early shipments combine with rerouting burdens, with capacity shortages likely to persist.

(Source: Clarksons, Samsung SDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

[Asia] Strong China-Origin Early Peak Season Alongside Heightened Hormuz Risks on Middle East Routes

-China-origin rates on major routes surged in late May on early inventory positioning and carrier rate hikes, while the new Dalian–Middle East direct route and Ningbo-Zhoushan terminal expansion are strengthening connectivity and processing stability at northern Chinese ports. Meanwhile, heightened Hormuz tensions are amplifying uncertainty in Middle East–bound commercial operations, with rising insurance and rerouting costs supporting the Middle East rate floor; at the same time, Mumbai Port recorded its highest cargo volumes in FY2025–26, strengthening its position among India's major ports.

[Americas] Rate Surges and Canadian Port Volume Absorption Drive Reconfiguration of North American Cargo Flows

- Asia–North America rates have risen on capacity cuts, fuel surcharges, and contract rate transitions, but actual demand recovery remains limited, with July–August imports expected to soften and booking volatility potentially expanding around June rate hikes. Q1 USWC imports declined 3.9% year-on-year while Vancouver and Prince Rupert grew 9.0% and 7.8% respectively, as Canadian ports expand market share, with some traditional USWC cargo flowing through Canadian gateways.

[Europe] Rising Pre-BAF Shipment Demand and CMA CGM's Suez Return Plans

-Asia–Europe shipment demand is rising ahead of July BAF adjustments, supporting June rate increases on China-origin North Europe and Mediterranean services, while rising bunker costs are likely to be passed through to BAF from Q3, expanding the pull-forward of shipments. CMA CGM has announced plans to return its India–Europe 'Epic Service' to the Suez route, potentially as early as late June, though most major carriers remain cautious about Suez resumption.

TAC Index

: The Baltic Air Freight Index in Week 23 reached 2,680, up 2.8% week-on-week and 32.7% year-on-year, sustaining high rate levels. The May average index reached 2,678, up 1.9% month-on-month and 33.3% year-on-year, with upward momentum moderating after April's surge but high rates sustained by jet fuel and rerouting cost burdens.

Despite supply recovery in May, high-value cargo demand from semiconductors, AI servers, and high-tech sectors combined with rerouting cost burdens to limit downward pressure, with Americas-bound rates up 9.4% from Seoul, 7.5% from Hong Kong, 2.5% from Shanghai, and 2.3% from Vietnam, while Europe-bound rates saw mixed corrections but maintained year-on-year high levels due to Gulf rerouting costs and supply constraints.

(Source: TAC Index)

Samsung SDS TAC Forecast

: The June air cargo market is expected to maintain high rates or post modest gains, centered on long-haul and high-value cargo routes. While fuel cost pressure has eased, airlines' rate defense posture is expected to sustain downward rigidity in rates.

The June air freight composite index is expected to rise centered on China and Hong Kong origins rather than surge broadly. China's 6/18 Shopping Festival and early inventory positioning ahead of the July 1 EU e-commerce small-parcel temporary tariff implementation may stimulate short-term e-commerce demand.

Asia–Americas routes are seeing expanded high-value cargo share, with Taiwan, Korea, and Hong Kong–origin supply tightness sustaining the rate floor.

(Source: Samsung SDS Brightics)

Demand & Supply Trend

: April demand grew 4.0% year-on-year, sustaining recovery, with renewed Asia-linked trade and time-sensitive cargo demand driving growth, and Europe–Asia, intra-Asia, and Pacific routes leading demand improvement.

May demand softened briefly in early month from Labor Day and Golden Week impacts, but volumes from major Asian export hubs including China, Hong Kong, and Korea recovered subsequently, with the recent two-week period showing 2.0% year-on-year growth. May demand by region: Asia +6.0%, Latin America +6.0%, North America +3.0%, Middle East/South Asia +1.0%, Europe –6.0%, with Latin America declining 13.0% over the prior two weeks as the Mother's Day floral peak season ended.

April supply declined 0.9% year-on-year, while May rose 0.8% year-on-year showing moderate recovery, with Pacific route increases offsetting Middle East declines and passenger belly cargo recovery driving growth. Supply mix consisted of freighter 41%, passenger 40%, and express 19%, with jet fuel burdens and Middle East rerouting accelerating restructuring toward high-efficiency long-haul freighters, while Middle Eastern carrier capacity has recovered to 60–80% of pre-conflict levels.

(Source: WorldACD, IATA, Seabury, TAC Index)

Regional Trends

[Asia] Expanding China-Origin Air Cargo Networks and Strengthening India Hub Amid Hormuz Risks

-The first international cargo route at Jiaxing Global Air Logistics Hub has launched, strengthening direct South Asia routing for apparel, footwear materials, electronics components, automotive parts, and e-commerce cargo, while some high-tech shippers are returning to China direct routes from Southeast Asia transshipment as U.S.–China trade uncertainty eases, shifting competitive dynamics among regional hubs. Meanwhile, Strait of Hormuz tensions are expanding uncertainty in Gulf-linked logistics and increasing exploration of alternative ocean and air routes, while Noida International Airport—scheduled to begin operations in September 2026—is strengthening northern India's air cargo hub functions through operational partnerships with Indian cargo carrier Afcom and ground handler AISATS.

[Americas] Aviation Fuel Tax Suspension Request and Delayed Aged Freighter Replacement Constrain Supply Flexibility

-U.S. cargo carriers have requested a temporary suspension of the Federal Aviation Fuel Tax as Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions have driven jet fuel prices sharply higher, with rising fuel costs passing through to essential cargo such as pharmaceuticals and consumer goods and limiting North American air cargo rate declines. At the same time, Airbus and Boeing supply chain disruptions are delaying new freighter deliveries, while the end of 777F and 767F production and a gap in next-generation freighters are constraining supply adjustment capacity.

[Europe] Expanding China Direct Cargo Networks and Intensifying Europe–Latin America Long-Haul Competition

-Amid increased Europe–Asia operational burdens from Middle East rerouting, the Scotland–China scheduled cargo service signals the expansion of Europe-wide direct cargo networks to China, emerging as an alternative for time-sensitive cargo. In addition, Europe–Latin America direct route competition is intensifying in response to growing perishables, minerals, and pharmaceuticals volumes, with the Europe–Northern Chile direct cargo route reducing transshipment time and improving Latin America west coast connectivity.

Market Intelligence [Jun. 2026]Logistics Market Intelligence Report

SCFI Composite Index

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast

Demand & Supply Trend

Regional Trends

TAC Index

Samsung SDS TAC Forecast

Demand & Supply Trend

Regional Trends

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Market Intelligence [Jun. 2026]
Logistics Market Intelligence Report