Market Intelligence H1 2026 Logistics Market Review
What Comes Next in H2

In the first half of 2026, the global logistics market was shaken by two forces: oil price risk and Middle East uncertainty. Both ocean and air freight saw demand come in stronger than expected while supply stayed tight, sending rates sharply higher. In H2, that pattern is expected to gradually reverse.

This post walks through demand, supply, and rate trends for ocean and air freight, comparing H1 to the H2 outlook.

Ocean Freight

H1 Trend

Demand

Demand stayed resilient on front-loaded shipments, as shippers pulled cargo forward to get ahead of Middle East risk and rising fuel costs. Stronger Asia-origin cargo helped offset weaker Middle East volumes.

Supply

Effective capacity stayed tight despite supply growth, constrained by the Hormuz disruption and Red Sea diversions.

Rates

Freight rates surged on stronger front-loaded demand and supply disruptions, with the increase sustained across the first half.

H2 Outlook

Demand

Demand is expected to soften as front-loading fades and high interest rates weigh on consumption.

Supply

Supply pressure is expected to rise on newbuilding deliveries and capacity recovery, with oversupply deepening from 2027.

Rates

Rates are expected to stay firm through early 3Q, then weaken in 4Q on easing costs, capacity recovery, and softer demand.

Air Cargo

H1 Trend

Demand

H1 demand quickly recovered to pre-war levels, running ahead of supply. Asia volume led the recovery.

Supply

Supply posted modest YoY growth below demand, with a gradual recovery driven by belly rebound and freighter additions.

Rates

Rates hit a 3-year high on the ME war's supply impact and remained elevated, with gains widening on key lanes.

H2 Outlook

Demand

Demand growth is expected to slow slightly YoY, with high-value AI/chip cargo and key Asia-origin lanes supporting demand.

Supply

The widening order-delivery gap and record-high backlog are likely to constrain supply over the mid to long term.

Rates

Q3 rates are expected to soften on oil normalization and an e-commerce slowdown, before rising again in Q4 on AI demand and year-end peak volume.

The Bottom Line

H1 2026 was defined by front-loaded demand meeting a supply squeeze — in both ocean and air, that combination pushed rates higher. H2 looks set to reverse course, though the timing differs: ocean rates are expected to stay firm into early 3Q before weakening in 4Q, while air rates are expected to dip in 3Q and rebound in 4Q on AI demand and peak season.

The details behind these swings — oil price normalization scenarios, Strait of Hormuz recovery data, jet fuel supply stabilization, and how AI cargo is reshaping the air market — are covered in depth in the full report.

▶ This content includes an outlook for H2 2026 logistics markets based on data available at the time of writing, and actual market conditions may differ. This outlook may change due to various factors such as oil prices and geopolitical risk, so please use it as a reference only.