White Papers Geopolitical Dynamics and
Mid-to-Long-Term Implications for
Logistics Surrounding the Arctic Route:
Focusing on Greenland

Definitions of Key Concepts

Arctic Shipping Routes and Geopolitical Concepts

Northern Sea Route (NSR)

Among the Arctic shipping routes under discussion, the Northern Sea Route (NSR), which follows Russia’s Arctic coastline, is considered the most realistic option. This is because navigation permit systems, icebreaker support frameworks, and demand linked to resource development projects have already been established. However, the NSR is not simply a shortcut across international waters; rather, it functions as a coastal corridor operated under Russia’s legal and administrative control.

Northwest Passage (NWP)

The Northwest Passage (NWP) passes through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and is regarded as a strategic corridor connecting the North American Arctic and the North Atlantic. However, from a commercial shipping perspective, it presents the most challenging operating conditions among the three Arctic routes. In addition, Canada does not view the NWP merely as an international shipping lane, but rather as waters subject to its sovereignty and environmental protection policies.

Transpolar Sea Route (TSR)

In the long term, the route with the greatest transformative potential is the Transpolar Sea Route (TSR), which crosses the central Arctic Ocean. Unlike the NSR or the Northwest Passage, the TSR could potentially develop into a route relatively less influenced by territorial waters and Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs). Nevertheless, the TSR still remains largely in the mid- to long-term scenario stage, and significant limitations currently prevent it from functioning as a regular commercial shipping route.

Supply Chain and Logistics Strategy Concepts

Supply Chain Resilience

Supply chain resilience refers to a more comprehensive strategic decision-making approach that encompasses both supply chain stability and risk response strategies. It considers not only operational continuity but also realistic applicability and response directions under changing conditions.

Multi-routing Strategy

A multi-routing strategy refers to a logistics approach based on diversified transportation routes, combining options such as the Suez Canal, the Cape of Good Hope, Eurasian railways, and air freight.

Chokepoint

A chokepoint refers to a critical gateway that significantly influences the global maritime network, including the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and the Panama Canal.

Arctic Geopolitics and Strategic Concepts

Polar Silk Road

In its 2018 Arctic Policy White Paper, China officially defined itself as a “Near-Arctic State” and introduced the concept of the “Polar Silk Road” as an extension of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Critical Minerals Supply Chain

China currently maintains a dominant position not only in rare earth production but also in refining and processing stages, which is increasingly viewed as a structural vulnerability within global advanced industrial supply chains.

GIUK Gap

Greenland is located at the center of the GIUK Gap (Greenland-Iceland-UK Gap), a strategically important corridor that serves as a key point for monitoring and potentially restricting Russian naval access to the Atlantic Ocean.

Understanding Geopolitical Shifts in Arctic Shipping Routes Through Key Questions

• Q1.

  Why are Arctic shipping routes emerging as a new alternative for global supply chains?

  As climate change and geopolitical risks intensify simultaneously, uncertainty surrounding existing global maritime trade routes is increasing, positioning Arctic shipping routes as a new alternative for global supply chains.

• Q2.

  What strategic advantages do Arctic shipping routes offer compared to the traditional Suez route?

  Arctic shipping routes provide the shortest maritime connection between Asia and Europe. For example, the sailing distance from Busan Port to Rotterdam in the Netherlands can be reduced from approximately 22,000 km via the Suez route to around 14,000 km through Arctic routes. In terms of transit time, Arctic routes can shorten voyage durations by up to 10–14 days compared to the Suez route, leading directly to lower fuel costs, reduced carbon emissions, and improved vessel turnaround efficiency.

• Q3.

  Why is Greenland being reinterpreted as a strategic hub?

  Greenland serves as the gateway to the Arctic and is the only territory adjacent to all major Arctic shipping routes, including the Northern Sea Route (NSR), the Northwest Passage (NWP), and the Transpolar Sea Route (TSR). As the commercialization of Arctic shipping routes becomes increasingly feasible, Greenland is no longer viewed merely as a “land of ice,” but rather as a strategic hub.

• Q4.

  Why are the United States, China, and the EU strengthening their strategic engagement with Greenland?

  Major powers such as the United States, China, and the European Union are strengthening their strategic engagement with Greenland in order to secure leadership in Arctic shipping routes, critical mineral supply chains, and security and digital infrastructure.

• Q5.

  What are the practical limitations of Arctic shipping routes?

  While Arctic shipping routes clearly hold long-term strategic value as an alternative logistics corridor, there are still structural limitations preventing their rapid expansion into regular container shipping routes. These constraints stem from multiple factors, including limited navigation periods due to seasonality, dependence on icebreaker support, insufficient infrastructure, and underdeveloped financial and insurance systems.

• Q6.

  What does the expansion of Arctic shipping routes mean for Korea’s logistics industry?

  Korea possesses world-class polar vessel construction technology and a highly competitive shipping and shipbuilding industry base. Busan Port continues to maintain its position as the world’s second-largest transshipment hub, while the strengthening of global shipping alliances’ hub-and-spoke strategies is further reinforcing its role as Northeast Asia’s primary logistics hub. In particular, under highly uncertain operating environments such as Arctic shipping routes, data-driven operational capabilities — including ETA forecasting, multimodal routing optimization, and crisis response simulation — are likely to become key competitive advantages.