White Papers H1 2026 Logistics Market Review & H2 2026 Outlook

Key Concepts

Bunker Adjustment Factor (FFF/EBS)

A surcharge carriers apply to pass rising fuel costs on to shippers. It consists of the regularly assessed FFF (Fossil Fuel Fee) and the EBS (Emergency Bunker Surcharge), which is applied temporarily when fuel prices spike sharply.

SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index)

A leading ocean freight index tracking spot rates from Shanghai across major trade lanes. It aggregates rate movements by route to give a comprehensive view of overall market rate trends.

Strait of Hormuz

A critical chokepoint for Middle East crude oil and jet fuel exports. When transit is restricted by war or geopolitical risk, it creates bottlenecks across the entire oil and jet fuel supply chain, directly affecting both ocean and air freight rates.

Bunker Fuel (VLSFO)

The primary fuel used by container ships. Bunker price movements are the basis for calculating fuel surcharges, and a spike in bunker prices typically feeds through to ocean freight rates with a lag of one to two quarters.

Newbuild Orderbook

The volume of vessels that have been ordered from shipyards but not yet delivered. A larger orderbook signals more capacity entering the market in the future, making it a key indicator of medium-to-long-term oversupply risk in ocean freight.

TAC / FSC (Total Air Charge / Fuel Surcharge)

TAC refers to the total air cargo rate, while FSC is the fuel surcharge component within it. When jet fuel prices spike, the FSC share expands, driving up the overall air freight rate.

Dynamic Load Factor

The ratio of cargo actually transported to available capacity. A higher figure indicates tighter supply-demand balance on that route.

AI/High-Tech Cargo

High-value air cargo related to AI infrastructure — semiconductors, servers, data center equipment, and similar goods. It carries a much higher value per kilogram than general cargo and is highly time-sensitive, and its share of the air cargo market is expanding rapidly.

Key Questions on the 2026 Logistics Market

• Q1.

  Why did ocean freight rates spike in H1 2026?

  Shippers pulled forward shipments in response to Middle East risk and rising fuel cost concerns, front-loading demand. At the same time, the Strait of Hormuz closure and rerouting around the Red Sea tightened effective vessel capacity, pushing rates up across all trade lanes. Rising bunker fuel prices following the US-Iran conflict, which led to higher fuel surcharges, added further upward pressure.

• Q2.

  Will ocean freight rates rise or fall in H2 2026?

  Q3 and Q4 are expected to move in opposite directions. In Q3, elevated fuel surcharges and front-loading ahead of possible US tariff increases will keep rates high. From Q4 onward, falling bunker prices (leading to lower fuel surcharges), the resumption of Gulf transit, and the arrival of newbuild vessels are all expected to converge, driving rates into a weakening trend.

• Q3.

  Specifically, how do international oil prices affect ocean and air freight rates?

  Following the US-Iran conflict, global bunker fuel prices surged more than 60% above the 2025 average, feeding through to ocean freight rates (SCFI) with a lag. The impact was even greater in air freight: a spike in jet fuel prices more than tripled the fuel cost share within air freight rates compared to pre-war levels. In H2, as international oil prices normalize, fuel surcharges in both markets are expected to be reduced in stages.

• Q4.

  When is the Strait of Hormuz risk expected to normalize?

  Following the ceasefire agreement, Hormuz transit volumes and congestion at major transshipment ports have shown some recovery from their lows. However, Q3 recovery is expected to be limited as it takes time to clear accumulated delays and restore services, with a more meaningful improvement in transit and congestion — and its effect on rates — expected to materialize in Q4.

• Q5.

  Why did H1 2026 air cargo rates hit a three-year high?

  Air cargo demand recovered quickly to pre-war levels, while supply growth failed to keep pace. On top of that, jet fuel supply disruptions originating in the Middle East caused jet fuel prices to spike, sharply increasing the fuel cost burden within air freight rates — pushing H1 rates to their highest level in three years.

• Q6.

  How is AI/semiconductor cargo reshaping the structure of the air cargo market?

  As e-commerce growth slows, AI and semiconductor cargo is rapidly filling the gap. AI cargo's share of the air cargo market has expanded to 46% of total volume, and AI/high-tech shipments from Asia to North America have grown sharply year-over-year, driving up rates on transpacific routes. Because AI cargo commands higher rate tolerance than general cargo, it also helps put a floor under rates when capacity competition intensifies during peak seasons.

• Q7.

  How will rising newbuild deliveries affect ocean freight rates in H2?

  The container ship orderbook is at its highest level since 2010, and a concentration of newbuild deliveries in H2 is expected to add to supply pressure. With even larger delivery volumes scheduled for 2027 and beyond, the medium-to-long-term structural oversupply is expected to deepen, potentially prolonging downward pressure on rates.

• Q8.

  How do aircraft delivery delays affect air cargo capacity?

  The gap between new aircraft orders and actual deliveries continues to widen, pushing the undelivered backlog to a record high. This has delayed the retirement of aging aircraft and led to the discontinuation of older freighter models, which is expected to act as a structural constraint on air cargo capacity over the medium to long term.

• Q9.

  How does Samsung SDS Cello Square respond to this kind of market volatility?

  Samsung SDS continuously monitors ocean and air freight market data, helping shippers anticipate rate volatility driven by oil prices, geopolitical risk, and supply chain shifts. Backed by a global network and logistics platform, it analyzes rate trends and risk factors by trade lane and route to provide shippers with the insights they need for shipment planning and cost management.