White Papers August 2026 Global Air Freight Market

Key Concepts

Air Cargo Demand

The overall volume of cargo transported by air. The report uses market indicators to compare YoY and MoM demand changes and to identify differences across major regions and trade lanes.

Load Factor

The share of available air cargo capacity utilized by actual demand. It is a key indicator of supply-demand balance and can signal a tighter market when demand grows faster than capacity.

Belly Capacity

Cargo capacity carried in the lower deck of passenger aircraft. Because it depends on passenger flight schedules and widebody operations, changes in passenger networks directly affect cargo supply.

Freighter Capacity

Capacity provided by dedicated cargo aircraft. In July 2026, freighter capacity increased 6.3% YoY and led overall global air cargo supply growth.

Transpacific

Trade lanes connecting Asia and North America across the Pacific. In July, Northeast Asia-origin transpacific freighter capacity expanded sharply as carriers redeployed capacity toward higher-yield lanes.

Baltic Air Freight Index

An index reflecting weekly transaction rates for general air cargo. It is used to track overall market direction and compare freight rate trends across major lanes.

Samsung SDS TAC Forecast

A short-term rate outlook based on Samsung SDS Brightics for key Asia-to-North America air cargo lanes, used in this report to assess expected rate direction through August and September.

August 2026 Air Freight Market: Key Questions

• Q1.

  What is the defining feature of the August 2026 air freight market?

  The key feature is widening lane differentiation. Global demand grew strongly in June, but weekly volumes softened for four consecutive weeks in July after an early-month high-tech surge.

  Europe-bound e-commerce weakened following the EU low-value cargo tariff, while AI and semiconductor shipments from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam to North America continued double-digit growth. Market averages therefore tell only part of the story; cargo mix and lane-specific conditions are becoming increasingly important.

• Q2.

  Which cargo segments are driving air freight demand?

  High-value technology cargo, particularly semiconductors and AI servers, remains a major demand driver. In June, resilient Asia-to-North America demand for these products and intra-Asia high-tech cargo flows supported overall growth.

  In July, AI and semiconductor volumes from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam continued to grow at double-digit rates, led by North America-bound lanes. At the same time, weaker Europe-bound e-commerce changed the cargo mix and widened regional divergence.

• Q3.

  Is capacity keeping pace with demand growth?

  June global supply increased 4.9% YoY, below the 9.6% increase in demand, keeping the market on a relatively tight supply-demand footing. July supply increased 1.8% YoY as the market moved gradually toward peak season.

  The supply mix also shifted. Freighter capacity increased 6.3% YoY while passenger aircraft capacity declined 2.8%. Northeast Asia-origin transpacific freighter capacity surged 16% YoY, showing a clear shift toward higher-yield lane deployment.

• Q4.

  How did cargo throughput change at major airports?

  In June 2026, Frankfurt handled 173.5K tonnes of cargo, up 2.0% YoY, while Hong Kong handled 436.0K tonnes, up 6.6%. Los Angeles reached 207.3K tonnes, up 11.6%, and Singapore Changi recorded 187.0K tonnes, up 8.1%.

  LAX benefited from transpacific semiconductor and electronics inflows from Asia, while HKG and SIN were supported by transshipment and high-tech cargo. The airport data reinforces the importance of technology cargo and hub connectivity in current demand patterns.

• Q5.

  What happened to air freight rates in July?

  The Week 31 Baltic Air Freight Index stood at 2,393, down 0.6% WoW. The July average was 2,460, down 8.6% MoM but still 20.4% above the year-ago level.

  China- and Hong Kong-origin rates to Europe declined 8.5-16.4% MoM following the low-value cargo tariff. Korea- and Taiwan-origin rates fell only around 1% MoM as semiconductor and AI server demand limited the decline, while India-to-North America rates rose 6.4% MoM.

• Q6.

  What is the near-term rate outlook and which risks matter most?

  The Week 31 Baltic Air Freight Index stood at 2,393, down 0.6% WoW, while the July average was 2,460, down 8.6% MoM but still 20.4% above the year-ago level. China- and Hong Kong-origin rates to Europe weakened more sharply, while Korea- and Taiwan-origin rates remained relatively firm on semiconductor and AI server demand.

  Samsung SDS expects a possible rebound on Asia-to-North America lanes and continued softness on Europe-bound lanes. Extended Middle East airspace restrictions, rerouting, jet fuel costs, Europe-bound e-commerce demand and North America-bound high-tech cargo remain the key variables to monitor.