White Papers Ocean Container Market Outlook, October 2026

Key Concepts

SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index)

An index of container freight rates on major routes from Shanghai, covering the composite index and USWC, USEC, N. Europe, Mediterranean, ECSA and Middle East routes.

TEU and FEU

Units of container volume. One 20-foot container is 1 TEU, and one 40-foot container is 1 FEU (2 TEU).

Return to Suez

Vessels that had been rerouted returning to the Suez Canal route. Shorter transit times increase actually available capacity, adding supply pressure on Europe and Mediterranean routes.

GRI (General Rate Increase)

A rate increase announced by carriers across the board at a set time. Whether it holds depends on demand and supply.

Schedule Reliability

The share of vessels sailing on schedule. A lower figure signals heavier port congestion and operational disruption.

Port Congestion

The average number of ships between arriving at the outer port and leaving the berth. A higher figure means a heavier waiting burden.

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast

A short-term SCFI forecast based on Samsung SDS Brightics, showing the direction of the composite index and route rates.

Key Questions

• Q1.

  What is the main trend in the ocean container market now?

  Trade lanes continue to diverge. USWC and USEC rates stay high on solid US import demand and carrier capacity management, while N. Europe and the Mediterranean weaken on soft demand and supply pressure from the return to Suez. The September SCFI Composite Index averaged 3,658pt, up 8.0% MoM, and held at a similar level to the prior week at 3,664pt in Week 41.

  Structurally, fleet growth of 4.6% slightly exceeds demand growth of 4.1%, keeping supply ahead. After Golden Week, lower China-origin shipments are expected to broaden downward pressure on rates.

• Q2.

  What is the outlook for container demand?

  Global container trade is forecast to grow 4.1% YoY in 2026. Q4 Asia-North America volume is forecast to grow 2.5% YoY and Asia-Europe 3.7%. Asia-North America remains solid through October but is expected to adjust gradually on lower China-origin shipments after Golden Week and slower imports from November, while Asia-Europe growth is expected to slow from Q3 on weaker European import demand.

  Imports at major US ports are forecast at 2.28 million TEU in September (up 8.6% YoY) and 2.25 million TEU in October (up 8.7%), with the earlier forecast revised up sharply on year-end inventory building. November and December are forecast to ease to 2.00 and 2.02 million TEU, but full-year 2026 imports are forecast at 25.8 million TEU, up 1.5% YoY.

• Q3.

  How are supply and vessel deployment?

  The global containership fleet is forecast to grow 4.6% YoY in 2026. Newbuilding deliveries remain high at 1.55 million TEU while scrapping is low at 0.04 million TEU, keeping pressure from fleet growth. Congestion at major Chinese ports is easing, but US destination port congestion continues to constrain vessel operations, and Europe faces growing pressure from more available capacity as vessels return to Suez.

  In September, vessels deployed were 121 on Asia-USWC (down 9.7% MoM), 69 on Asia-USEC (down 4.2%), 94 on Asia-N. Europe (down 3.1%) and 121 on Asia-Mediterranean (down 5.5%). In October, deployment is forecast at 132 on Asia-USWC (up 9.1%), 76 on Asia-USEC (up 10.1%), 97 on Asia-N. Europe (up 3.2%) and 120 on Asia-Mediterranean (down a further 0.8%). Asia-Middle East is forecast to fall 23.0% to 57 in October.

• Q4.

  How are schedule reliability and port congestion?

  Global schedule reliability in August fell 5.9%p MoM to 49.9%, a second straight sharp decline. Maersk was highest among the top 13 carriers at 67.3%, followed by Hapag-Lloyd at 61.5%, and all 13 carriers declined MoM. By alliance in July-August, Gemini Cooperation led at 77.8%, followed by MSC at 70.1% and Ocean Alliance at 48.3%.

  Long Beach congestion remained high at 29.6 ships in Week 40 versus 29.1 in Week 38, while New York rose from 11.7 to 16.3. Rotterdam worsened again to 58.1 ships while Hamburg stabilized at 33.5. Shanghai fell 21.9% from 191.7 to 149.8 ships, while Singapore stayed high at 150.3 versus 149.4.

• Q5.

  How did rates move in September?

  USWC averaged $7,436/FEU, up 10.6% MoM, and was $7,584 in Week 41, up 0.1% WoW, holding steady at a high level. USEC averaged $10,482/FEU, up 8.6%, and was $10,524 in Week 41, at a similar level to the prior week. Rates stayed high on solid import demand and carrier capacity management, but gains slowed around Golden Week.

  N. Europe and the Mediterranean fell 15.4% and 16.7% MoM on weak demand and supply pressure from the return to Suez. In Week 41, N. Europe rebounded 3.4% on carrier capacity management and rate hike attempts, while the Mediterranean held flat. ECSA and the Middle East rose 1.2% and 12.7% in September but both fell in Week 41.

• Q6.

  What is the outlook for October-November and what are the key variables?

  Samsung SDS expects downward pressure on the SCFI Composite Index to build as China-origin demand slows after Golden Week and the return to Suez adds supply pressure. USWC is expected to be flat to slightly lower as year-end demand slows gradually, with carrier capacity management possibly limiting the decline. USEC is also expected to be flat to slightly lower; capacity deployment burden from long-haul sailings partly limits the decline, but high rate levels leave room for adjustment.

  N. Europe and the Mediterranean are expected to face continued downward pressure from weak demand and growing available capacity. The impact of the Suez return is relatively larger in the Mediterranean, while a rebound in N. Europe is limited despite late-October rate increase attempts. ECSA is expected to stay weak, with a mid-October GRI possibly limiting the decline but a sustained rebound uncertain, and the Middle East remains at risk of weakness from recent rate adjustments despite Hormuz transit constraints.