White Papers Air Cargo Market Outlook, October 2026

Key Concepts

Air Cargo Demand

The total volume of cargo moved by air. This paper tracks it through IATA monthly demand (B ton Kilo) and WorldACD weekly data.

Load Factor

The share of available capacity actually filled with cargo. The faster demand grows relative to supply, the tighter the market.

Belly Capacity

Supply from the cargo holds of passenger aircraft, directly affected by airlines' passenger flight schedules.

Freighter Capacity

Supply from dedicated cargo aircraft, including charters. Strong growth in charter freighters this year is shifting supply toward freighters.

Asia-North America Lane

The trans-Pacific lane linking Asia and North America. Semiconductor and AI-server cargo is concentrated here, driving demand and rates.

Baltic Air Freight Index

The air freight index (BAI00) reflecting weekly transaction rates for general cargo, used as a benchmark for overall rate direction.

Samsung SDS TAC Forecast

A short-term air freight rate forecast based on Samsung SDS Brightics, showing the direction of rates on Hong Kong-, China-, Vietnam- and India-origin US-bound lanes.

Key Questions

• Q1.

  What is the main trend in the air cargo market now?

  Demand is growing strongly year on year, but lanes are diverging. August demand rose 5.3% YoY, and September global demand rose 7.0% YoY and 1.0% versus the previous two weeks. Asia-origin Americas-bound cargo led by semiconductors and AI servers is solid, while China/Hong Kong-origin Europe-bound cargo keeps contracting after the EU ended its de minimis exemption.

  Supply is shifting toward freighters. September supply rose 2.3% YoY, and freighter capacity cut from China to Europe was redeployed to Asia-North America lanes, expanding North America-bound supply while Europe-origin supply is the weakest.

• Q2.

  Which cargo and lanes are driving demand?

  Semiconductors and AI servers are driving growth. In August, the Asia-North America lane rose 13.2% YoY, expanding for a seventh straight month. In September, Korea, Japan and Taiwan-origin Americas-bound volumes were strong before Chuseok, with servers and racks the biggest driver. Asia-origin demand fell 2.0% versus the previous two weeks but rose 8.0% YoY.

  China-origin US-bound volumes recovered on pre-Golden Week front-loading, while China/Hong Kong-origin Europe-bound cargo recovered slightly and then weakened again. The Asia-Europe lane rose only 3.1% YoY in August. In the Middle East and South Asia, Dubai-origin volumes plunged as the Gulf conflict resumed, while India and Bangladesh-origin US-bound volumes stayed solid.

• Q3.

  How is supply responding?

  August supply rose 0.1% YoY (down 1.3% MoM), well below demand growth of 5.3%. European airlines' international supply fell 6.4% YoY, offsetting gains elsewhere, and August aircraft deliveries were 57 Airbus and 49 Boeing, 22 and 8 fewer than the three-month average.

  September supply rose 2.3% YoY (1.6% versus the previous four weeks), while passenger belly capacity fell 2.5% versus the previous four weeks. Passenger aircraft hold 41% of global supply, freighters 40% and integrators 19%, and charter freighter supply is up 79% YoY this year, close to pandemic-peak levels. By region, YoY supply rose 4.0% from Asia, 4.0% from North America, 2.0% from the Middle East and South Asia and 1.0% from Europe, with North America-origin supply growing less than demand.

• Q4.

  How are major airports performing?

  Los Angeles (LAX) handled 202.4 thousand tonnes in August, up 7.2% YoY. Growth slowed from 14.6% in July, but semiconductor and AI-server cargo from Asia kept volumes at record levels. Singapore Changi (SIN) handled 190 thousand tonnes, up 7.3%, driven by high-tech cargo from AI assembly hubs in Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand.

  Frankfurt (FRA) handled 175.3 thousand tonnes, up 3.0%, as demand for auto and machinery parts offset weak e-commerce and freighter-led handling expanded. Hong Kong (HKG) handled 422 thousand tonnes, down 1.6%, as e-commerce volumes to Europe fell after the EU ended its de minimis exemption.

• Q5.

  How did rates move in September?

  The Baltic Air Freight Index (BAI00) was 2,481 in Week 40, up 0.6% WoW, rising steadily from 2,438, 2,444 and 2,466 in Weeks 37-39. The September average was 2,457, up 1.4% MoM and 20.4% YoY. Fuel costs from the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices supported the rate floor.

  China-origin rates rose 31.7-32.5% YoY to the Americas but only 10.4-12.8% to Europe, a clear divide. Korea-origin rates rose 55.8% to the Americas and 40.4% to Europe, and Vietnam-origin rates rose 24.0-24.6% to North America and Europe. India-origin rates rose 54.5% to North America and 62.5% to Europe, the largest gains, with volatility continuing as Gulf airspace detours coincide with Mumbai cargo infrastructure upgrades.

• Q6.

  What is the outlook for October-November and what are the key variables?

  Samsung SDS expects Americas-bound rates to stay high while demand and supply volatility widens around Golden Week. As volume recovers with peak season after Golden Week, rates are expected to rise and then level off, led by China/Hong Kong-origin Americas-bound cargo. North America-bound rates may keep rising gradually as high ocean rates shift volume to air alongside semiconductor demand. Europe-bound rebounds are limited by weak e-commerce, with gains held below North America by EU tariffs and freighter cuts.

  The key variables are fuel costs, e-commerce peak-season volumes and demand-supply volatility around Golden Week. Higher oil prices support the rate floor, while e-commerce peak-season volumes may be weaker than last year. Semiconductor and AI-server demand provides support but strong peak-season signals are limited, while added freighter capacity is expected to offset lower belly capacity.