Market Intelligence [Square Newsletter] 2023 No.2

Economy

Due to the uncertainty of economic outlook, the OPEC+ decided to maintain its oil reduction stance (2M barrel/day) by 2023.

Sea Freight

The production of containers is expected to increase by 6.7% and 5.5% in 2023 and 2024 respectively, and the gap between demand and supply is likely to diminish.

Air Freight

The jet fuel and FSC has temporarily rebounded following the recovery of demand in China and the resumption of travel. The cargo supply centering around supply from Asia is diminishing.

The OECD leading index fell slightly from the previous month in the U.S. and China, while Europe maintains it after a 16-month decline.
The U.S PMI index shrank for 3 consecutive months and Europe continued to rise to 48.8, but lasts to shrink for 7 straight months. On the other hand, China is showing signs of improvement in the new year, turning to 50.1 in 4 months.

The SCFI composite index continues to decline, but it is 24% higher than ‘19 average. The TAC index has seen a series of declines in Hongkong to Europe/US, while Shanghai to US has fallen again since the rebound last month.
Due to China's recovery in demand and the resumption of travel, Jet fuel fell 14% compared to its high point in June 22, but rose 45% YoY, and FSC fell 47% compared with its high point in June 22, but rose 78% YoY