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Market Intelligence [June 2023] The SCFI down by 2.2% MoM in May, still higher than 2019

Registration dateJUN 21, 2023

Economic Indicator

OECD Composite Leading Indicator (May)

미국
98.7(-)
유럽
98.5(-)
중국
100.0(0.2)
(Source : OECD)

In May 2023, OECD Leading Economic Indicators for the US and Europe continued to be in contraction, while China's index returned to 100.0 for the first time since Oct '21.

※ If it is in an upward with more than 100 based on 100, it is evaluated as an expansion phase, if it is in a downward with less than 100, a contraction phase.
※ Europe : France, Germany, Italy, UK

Manufacturing PMI (May)

미국
46.9(0.2)
유럽
44.8(1.0)
중국
48.8(0.4)
(Source : Investing.com)

May '23 US PMI index was 46.9, 7th consecutive month of contraction. Europe contracted for 11th consecutive month at 44.8 (lowest in 36 months). China PMI falls in May after April, marking 2nd month of contraction at 48.8.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

International Oil Price (WTI) (May)

국제유가(WTI)
68.1(8.7)
WTI falls amid high levels of inflation, concerns over another US rate hike in June.
WTI to $68.1/barrel in May '23, with an 11.3% decline MoM.
(Source : Investing.com)

Logistics Market Trends

Ocean

Ocean

Container Freight Rate : SCFI (May)

Container Freight Rate : SCFI
948(23)
The SCFI down by 2.2% MoM in May, but remains higher than 2019.
1st week of Jun, transpacific shows a surge because of the implementation of GRIs and Panama Canal surcharge.
(Source : Shanghai Shipping Exchange )

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast

Samsung SDS SCFI Forecast
The Composite Index forecasts 943-970 points for 3Q 2023 and 945-950 points for 4Q 2023.
Freight forecast 2nd half of 2023 : USWC $1,645 / USEC $2,750 / North Europe $845
(Source : SamsungSDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

Asia
[Asia]
Seoul’s KOBC(Korea Ocean Business Corporation) planned to help finance 20 new feeder vessels for the South Korea-Japan route. Because of the threat from Sealand, CNC Line and X-Press Feeders, South Korean feeder operators want to maintain competitiveness. (5/9, The Loadstar)
Americas
[Americas]
Transfer Shipping and BAL Container Liner, which started a China-US west coast service in 2021, have withdrawn from the loss-making long-haul lanes. (5/15, The Load Star)
Europe
[Europe]
2M Alliance is adding a total of nine ships to eight Asia-Europe (including Med) services. This change will allow 2M to reduce speeds and emissions further. But this also leads to a long transit time. (5/11, Maersk)

Air

Air

Air Freight Rate: TAC Index (May)

TAC Index
HKG-EUR 3.77(0.24) HKG-US 4.90(0.14)
HKG-EUR ($3.77) declines for 9th consecutive month, HKG-US ($4.90) drops in May following April's decline.
Shanghai-Europe ($3.18) and Shanghai-US ($4.27) drops in May following April's decline.
(Source : TAC Index)

Samsung SDS TAC Forecasting

Samsung SDS TAC Forecasting
HKG-US forecast $4.4 ~ $4.5 in the 3Q and $3.6 ~ $5.0 in the 4Q of 2023
HKG-EUR forecast $3.7 ~ $3.8 in the 3Q and $3.5 ~ $3.7 in the 4Q of 2023
(Source : SamsungSDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

Asia
[Asia]
Korean Air (KE) is launching 2/W cargo flights from Incheon (ICN) to Zhengzhou (CGO), China, starting today. Zhengzhou is an inland logistics hub in central and western China, home to the Foxconn factory that produces iPhones, and has developed manufacturing industries such as mobile phones and electronic components. (5/25, Cargo News)
Europe
[Europe]
Lufthansa has agreed to acquire 41% of Italian carrier ITA and could in the future purchase the rest of the state-owned airline. Lufthansa today reached an agreement with the Italian Ministry of Economy and Finance (MEF) to acquire the stake through a €325m capital increase. As part of the agreement, the MEF has also committed to a capital increase of €250m into ITA. (5/26, Air Cargo News)

National Holiday Calendar (June)

Calendar
(Source : https://www.timeanddate.com/ )

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