Market Intelligence [August. 2026]
Logistics Market Intelligence Report

Registration dateAUG 12, 2026

In August, the ocean freight market continues to see a rebound in U.S.-bound rates, weakness in Europe, and high volatility in the Middle East. Let's take a look at freight rates by major trade lane and supply-demand trends.

SCFI Composite Index

: The SCFI Composite Index rose 5.1% month on month in July, while Week 32 increased 2.2% week on week. GRIs on the U.S. West Coast and East Coast trades, together with carriers' capacity management, led the increase in freight rates.

July freight rates to the U.S. West Coast and East Coast rose 13.4% and 26.7% month on month, respectively. Inventory replenishment and supply adjustments amid U.S. tariff uncertainty supported GRIs, while disruptions at Chinese ports caused by typhoons and Panama Canal operational risks constrained available capacity.

July freight rates to Northern Europe and the Mediterranean rose 6.2% and 5.3% month on month, respectively, but have remained on a downward trend since early July. Middle East rates fell 4.8% month on month, but rose 7.4% week on week in Week 32, marking a fourth consecutive weekly rebound.

(Source: Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

Samsung SDS SCFI Outlook

: In August, the SCFI Composite Index is expected to find downside support from U.S.-bound GRIs and capacity management, port and schedule disruptions caused by typhoons in China, and Middle East risk costs. However, weaker European demand and structural capacity growth could lead to a gradual correction going forward.

On the U.S. West Coast trade, inventory replenishment and tighter capacity management amid tariff uncertainty are expected to support GRIs in the near term. However, rates could be adjusted again if port operations normalize after the typhoons and import demand and supply management weaken. On the U.S. East Coast trade, capacity management and China-origin schedule disruptions, together with tighter Panama Canal draft and transit restrictions, could keep rates higher than on the U.S. West Coast.

Northern Europe could see flat rates or a correction due to lower peak-season volumes and the inflow of new capacity. In the Middle East, high volatility may persist due to uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and readjustments to fuel and emergency surcharges.

(Source: Samsung SDS Brightics)

Demand & Supply Trends

: Global container trade volume is forecast to increase 3.7% year on year in 2026. Exports from China to Europe, Asia, and emerging markets are supporting growth, but disruptions to Middle East trade are offsetting some of the increase, widening regional divergence.

Asia-North America container volume is forecast to decrease 0.7% year on year in Q3 2026. The front-loading effect is gradually weakening, but peak-season volumes lasting longer than expected due to uncertainty over additional U.S. tariffs may provide some additional support to demand. Asia-Europe volume is forecast to increase 1.3% year on year, although growth is expected to slow as peak-season volumes are depleted and the recovery in European consumption remains limited.

The global container fleet is forecast to reach 34.6 million TEU in 2026, up 4.6% year on year, with fleet growth outpacing demand growth and continuing to add supply pressure. However, rerouting around the Red Sea and the Strait of Hormuz, along with transit uncertainty, is constraining effective capacity and limiting actual supply availability. In the short term, carriers' capacity management will determine the amount of capacity actually available.

(Source: Clarksons, Samsung SDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

[Asia] Port congestion fluctuates due to typhoon impacts, while capacity constraints to the Middle East persist

-Shanghai congestion fell sharply to 154.1 vessels in Week 32, down 29.2% week on week, as congestion that had surged due to concentrated shipments at the end of July and typhoon impacts temporarily eased. However, further typhoons could cause congestion to increase again. The number of vessels deployed on the Asia-Middle East trade fell 8.6% month on month to 64 in July and is expected to remain at 64 in August, as transit disruptions continue amid heightened uncertainty surrounding the Strait of Hormuz.

[Americas] Capacity management on U.S.-bound trades and port/Panama operational risks persist

-The number of vessels deployed on the Asia-U.S. West Coast trade is forecast to rise 3.1% month on month to 132 in August, while deployment on the U.S. East Coast trade is forecast to increase 10.9% to 71 vessels. However, tighter capacity management on U.S.-bound trades and concerns over Panama Canal draft restrictions are expected to limit the increase in actual available capacity. Long Beach congestion rose 32.5% week on week to 25.3 vessels in Week 32, while New York congestion fell 2.4% to 12.3 vessels and remained relatively stable.

[Europe] Northern Europe capacity rises as peak-season demand slows and port congestion eases

-The number of vessels deployed on the Asia-Northern Europe trade is forecast to increase 2.0% month on month to 101 in August, although deployment growth is expected to slow as peak-season demand weakens. Rotterdam congestion fell for a third consecutive week after Week 30 to 55.3 vessels in Week 32. Congestion is gradually easing but remains elevated at more than 50 vessels.

In August, the air cargo market is expected to see the decline on North America-bound routes stabilize, while weakness on Europe-bound routes continues. Let's take a look at freight rates by major route and supply-demand trends.

TAC Index

: The Baltic Air Freight Index stood at 2,393 in Week 31, down 0.6% week on week. After four consecutive weekly declines since late June, the pace of decline has eased and the index has remained broadly flat.

The average July rate was 2,460, down 8.6% month on month but still 20.4% higher year on year. Rates on China/Hong Kong-Europe routes fell 8.5-16.4% month on month following the implementation of tariffs on low-value parcels in Europe, while declines on Korea- and Taiwan-origin routes were limited to around 1% due to demand for semiconductor and AI server cargo.

Rates from Southeast Asia to the Americas fell 8.7% month on month but remained 27.6% higher year on year. India-origin rates to the Americas rose 6.4% month on month and 8.4% week on week, showing the strongest upward momentum among Asia-Americas routes.

(Source : TAC Index)

Samsung SDS TAC Outlook

: In August, the air cargo market is expected to see a modest rebound on Asia-North America routes while Europe-bound rates continue to decline as the downward trend seen in July stabilizes.

North America-bound demand for high-value technology cargo, including semiconductors and AI servers, is expected to continue its structural growth. Rates on Taiwan- and Korea-origin routes may stabilize or rebound gradually, while a possible renewed increase in jet fuel prices could also provide additional upside support.

The impact of weaker e-commerce cargo on Europe-bound routes is likely to persist through August, with the downward trend expected to continue before the peak season begins. On Middle East-origin and transit routes, airspace restrictions have been extended through August, raising the possibility of renewed volatility. Whether rerouting continues could also affect freight rates.

(Source: Samsung SDS Brightics)

Demand & Supply Trends

: Air cargo demand rose 9.6% year on year and 2.3% month on month in June, showing a notable growth. Demand for high-value technology cargo, including semiconductors and AI servers, on Asia-North America routes drove the overall increase.

In July, weekly volumes slowed for four consecutive weeks after strong high-tech demand at the beginning of the month as the market entered the off-season. E-commerce demand weakened following the introduction of tariffs on low-value parcels in Europe, while AI semiconductor volumes from Taiwan, Korea, and Vietnam continued to post double-digit growth, led by shipments to the Americas.

Supply increased 4.9% year on year in June, but growth remained below the increase in demand, keeping the global supply-demand balance tight. July supply increased 1.8% year on year. Freighter capacity rose 6.3% year on year and led the supply expansion, while passenger capacity fell 2.8%. Transpacific freighter capacity centered on Northeast Asia surged 16% year on year.

(Source: WorldACD, IATA, Seabury, TAC Index)

Regional Trends

[Asia] High-tech cargo reshapes volume flows as transpacific capacity expands

-AI semiconductor volumes from Taiwan, Korea, and Vietnam continue to post double-digit growth, led by shipments to the Americas. At Southeast Asian regional transshipment hubs, high-tech cargo is rapidly replacing e-commerce volumes. Asia-origin capacity is being visibly reallocated toward higher-yield routes, while transpacific freighter capacity centered on Northeast Asia surged 16% year on year.

[Americas] Semiconductor and electronics demand supports U.S.-bound volumes and rates

-North American demand in Weeks 28-29 fell 1.0% from the previous two weeks but rose 2.0% year on year. LAX handled 207.3 thousand tonnes of cargo in June, up 11.6% year on year, as transpacific inflows of semiconductor and electronics cargo from Asia and urgent demand supported growth.

[Europe] Weaker e-commerce demand drives declines in Europe-bound volumes and rates

- Asia-Europe demand fell 9% from the previous two weeks. The contraction in e-commerce volumes following the implementation of tariffs on low-value parcels in Europe drove the recent decline. Freighter capacity from China and Hong Kong to Europe also fell sharply, while July freight rates on these routes dropped 8.5-16.4% month on month.

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Market Intelligence [August. 2026]Logistics Market Intelligence Report

SCFI Composite Index

Samsung SDS SCFI Outlook

Demand & Supply Trends

Regional Trends

TAC Index

Samsung SDS TAC Outlook

Demand & Supply Trends

Regional Trends

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Market Intelligence [August. 2026]
Logistics Market Intelligence Report