Market Intelligence [September. 2026]
Logistics Market Intelligence Report

Registration dateSEP 15, 2026

September's ocean market continues to see US strength extending into a sixth consecutive week of gains, alongside North Europe and Mediterranean weakness and high volatility on the Middle East and East Coast South America lanes. We will look at rates and demand-supply trends by major route.

SCFI Composite Index

: In W36, the SCFI Composite Index rose 2.3% week on week to 3,590pt, extending gains to a sixth consecutive week. The August average of 3,388pt was 6.8% above July, as strength on the US trades offset weakness on North Europe and the Mediterranean.

In August, US West Coast rates averaged $6,726/FEU (+10.9% MoM) and US East Coast $9,651/FEU (+15.7% MoM). Firm US demand, port disruption from typhoons in China, and concerns over Panama Canal transit constraints continue to support rate strength.

In contrast, North Europe and the Mediterranean fell 11.3% and 14.2% MoM respectively, extending the weakness, while the Middle East and East Coast South America climbed 26.2% and 20.7% respectively, holding at elevated levels amid supply constraints.

(Source : Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

Samsung SDS SCFI Outlook

: In September, the SCFI Composite Index is expected to see continued US strength and North Europe/Mediterranean weakness. With Europe weakness persisting, the durability of US rate strength is likely to drive the direction of the index.

The US West Coast is supported by delayed Chinese port normalization combined with pre-National Day loading surges, while the US East Coast is likely to sustain high rates as Chinese port disruption and pre-holiday loadings are compounded by Panama Canal slot reductions.

North Europe and the Mediterranean are expected to continue declining on weakening peak-season demand, and any return by some carriers to Suez routing could add further downward pressure by shortening voyages. The Middle East and East Coast South America are expected to stay elevated on Hormuz uncertainty and limited capacity supply respectively.

(Source : Samsung SDS Brightics)

Demand & Supply Trends

: Global container trade is forecast to grow 3.8% year on year in 2026. US-bound demand is firmer than expected, while Europe-bound demand has slowed after an early peak season, widening the divergence across routes.

In Q3, Far East-North America volume is forecast to decline 1.7% year on year — a much smaller drop than the 7.6% decline in Q3 2025 — and Far East-Europe is expected to grow only 1.3%, with volumes falling sharply after the early peak (May-July).

The global containership fleet is forecast to reach 34.6 million TEU in 2026, up 4.6% year on year, outpacing demand growth. Newbuild deliveries of 1.6 million TEU remain elevated, while scrapping is very low. Chinese port disruption plus Red Sea and Hormuz constraints continue to limit effective capacity, and September will see sustained high vessel deployments in response to pre-National Day loading surges.

(Source : Clarksons, Samsung SDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

[Asia] Congestion at major Chinese ports re-expanding on typhoon impact

-Shanghai port congestion rose 8.1% from 196.2 vessels in W35 to 212.1 in W36 with repeated typhoon impact, and Singapore port congestion also rose 7.3% from 130.4 in W35 to 139.9 in W36. Vessel deployment on Asia-USWC is 138 vessels (+3.0%) and Asia-USEC 75 (+4.2%) in September, with capacity expansion set to continue in response to the pre-National Day loading surge.

[Americas] Panama Canal transit cuts and sustained Long Beach congestion

-The Panama Canal Authority cut daily transits from 36 to 34 on September 4 and further to 32 on September 15, and postponed the planned Neopanamax draft increase to October 1. Long Beach congestion rose for a third consecutive week from 19.4 vessels in W33 to 26.8 in W36, and on the US East Coast, effective capacity expansion is expected to be limited by Panama slot cuts and draft restrictions.

[Europe] Continued weakness amid slowing peak-season demand

-Rotterdam congestion eased to 57.8 vessels in W36 versus the first half of the year, and Hamburg (37.0) reflects the recent volume slowdown. September vessel deployment on Asia-North Europe rises to 109 (+12.4%) and Asia-Mediterranean to 134 (+4.7%), with supply pressure expected to intensify amid slowing peak-season demand. Any return by some carriers to Suez routing could also add further downward pressure by shortening voyages.

September's air cargo market is expected to sustain high rates on US-bound lanes as Asia-origin semiconductor demand remains strong, while Europe lanes should see the recent decline ease as the peak season begins. We will look at rates and demand-supply trends by major route.

TAC Index

: In W35, the Baltic Air Freight Index eased 0.2% week on week to 2,419. August rates traded in a narrow range as July's sharp decline stabilized. Persistent Middle East risk keeps jet fuel firm, supporting a rate floor.

The August average of 2,422 was 1.5% below July and 19.1% above a year earlier, sustaining high rates through the low season.

In August, US-bound lanes held up relatively well, with Hong Kong origins up 2.8%, while China and Hong Kong origins to Europe fell 2.1-8.7% month on month. India-origin lanes have run 50-80% above last year across the board since May on Middle East airspace restrictions and rerouting, with August India-origin average rates up 54.3% to the US and 60.4% to Europe.

(Source : TAC Index)

Samsung SDS TAC Outlook

: In September, the air cargo market is expected to sustain high rates centered on US-bound lanes as Asia-origin semiconductor demand remains strong. Peak-season rate recoveries out of China and Hong Kong, along with higher freighter utilization on Asia-US lanes, could support the rate floor.

US-bound is expected to sustain rate strength as semiconductor volumes out of Taiwan and Korea continue to drive demand, and Europe-bound may see the drop from e-commerce softening ease as pre-National Day loadings push volumes in.

Overall, air freight rates are expected to see the decline ease as rate recoveries on China/Hong Kong-Europe lanes combine with peak-season effects, transitioning to a mild upward shift.

(Source : Samsung SDS Brightics)

Demand & Supply Trends

: July demand rose 4.7% year on year (up 1.4% MoM), sustaining growth. Modal shift from surging trans-Pacific ocean rates plus Asia-North America semiconductor and AI-server cargo drove air demand expansion. Freighter volumes rose 13.9% year on year — the largest increase in five years — while passenger belly cargo fell 7.0% year on year.

July supply rose 1.8% year on year (up 2.4% MoM), but lagged demand growth, easing the supply-demand gap. Asia-Pacific carriers accounted for about 74% of the increase, while North American carriers cut supply by about 1.5%.

August supply was up 0.4% year on year — passenger flat, freighter expansion driving growth. Global capacity share is 43% passenger, 38% freighter, and 19% express. Freighter deployment out of Taiwan and Incheon has expanded on semiconductor and AI-server demand, while cuts from China and Hong Kong continue to make Europe-bound capacity feel short. In South Asia, freighter supply out of India — with Bengaluru airport as India's IT/electronics and pharmaceutical export hub — has expanded significantly.

(Source : WorldACD, IATA, Seabury, TAC Index)

Regional Trends

[Asia] Freighter deployment out of Taiwan and Incheon expands on semiconductor & AI-server demand

-Freighter deployment out of Taiwan and Incheon is expanding as semiconductor and AI-server cargo demand remains firm on East Asia-US lanes. Hong Kong airport (HKG) handled 422 thousand tonnes in July, down 1.9% year on year, while Singapore's Changi (SIN) handled 193 thousand tonnes (+7.2% YoY), sustaining strength in semiconductor and electronics cargo.

[Americas] Semiconductor demand keeps Hong Kong-Americas lanes relatively firm

-Hong Kong-Americas rates rose 2.8% month on month while Shanghai-origin only fell 3.0%, holding up relatively well. LA airport (LAX) handled 207.3 thousand tonnes in July (+14.6% YoY), with East Asia-origin semiconductor and server-rack cargo driving trans-Pacific demand. India-origin to the Americas rose 6.4% MoM — the sharpest gain on any Asia-Americas lane.

[Europe] E-commerce volumes weaken after de minimis tariff enforcement

-China and Hong Kong-Europe rates fell 2.1-8.7% month on month, with the aftereffects of de minimis tariff enforcement persisting. Frankfurt airport (FRA) handled 176.6 thousand tonnes in July (+1.1% YoY), reflecting belly-cargo capacity recovery from added passenger flights, and India-Europe August average rates rose 60.4% year on year on Middle East airspace restrictions and rerouting.

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Market Intelligence [September. 2026]Logistics Market Intelligence Report

SCFI Composite Index

Samsung SDS SCFI Outlook

Demand & Supply Trends

Regional Trends

TAC Index

Samsung SDS TAC Outlook

Demand & Supply Trends

Regional Trends

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Market Intelligence [September. 2026]
Logistics Market Intelligence Report