Market Intelligence [Sep. 2023] Logistics market review and outlook for August

In July 2023, OECD Leading Economic Indicators for the US and Europe continued to be in contraction, China continued expansion above 100 for 4 months since March.

※ If it is in an upward with more than 100 based on 100, it is evaluated as an expansion phase, if it is in a downward with less than 100, a contraction phase.
※ Europe : France, Germany, Italy, UK

Aug '23 US PMI index was 47.6, 10th consecutive months of contraction.
Europe contracted for 14th consecutive month at 43.5.
China contracted for 5th consecutive month at 49.7 in Apr despite 3-months rise.

※ A leading indicator of the economic situation as a result of a monthly survey of more than 400 corporate purchasing/supply managers

83.6Up(3.3)

WTI continues to rise during the peak summer travel season, with Hurricane Dahlia impact.
WTI has increased from $81.8/barrel in July 2023 to $83.6/barrel in August 2023, +2.2% (MoM).

1,032Up(55)

The SCFI composite index up 5.7% from Jul, driven by gains on the Americas and Europe routes Panama issue is a near-term driver of freight rates, but large supply situation limits further upside potential

The Composite Index forecasts 1,014-1,071 points for 4Q 2023
Freight forecast 4Q 2023 : USWC $1,613 / USEC $2,619 / North Europe $865

[Asia]
- China remains embedded in U.S. supply chains even as American firms have taken steps to reduce direct imports from China. Chinese firms appear to mitigate the impact through increased exports to and FDI in Vietnam and Mexico.(8/28, Supply Chain Brain)
- Saudi Arabia has launched a master plan to build 59 logistics centers with the aim of transforming the nation into a global logistics hub for Asia, Europe, and Africa.(8/28, DC Velocity)

[Americas]
The PCA(Panama Canal Authority) warns that restrictions will stay in place for at least 10 months due to the unprecedented drought this year. The draft restriction brings the maximum headhaul utilization down to 84%, and large vessels may re-route via Suze.(8/25, Splash 247)

[Europe]
- Shipping lines offer significant freight rate discounts for China-bound(Asia-North Europe) cargoes in October. MSI(Maritime Strategies International) expects continued weakness in freight rates due to influx of newbuild ultra-large container ships into supply(8/25, The Loadstar)
- Carriers received 200k teu of newbuild capacity in July, following a record of 300k teu in June. Among these, mega-newbuilds(>24,000 teu) will all be deployed on the Asia-North Europe trade, which is a real challenge for carriesrs.(8/9, The Loadstar)

HKG-EUR 3.64Up(0.04) HKG-US 0.11Up(0.11)

HKG-EUR ($3.64) modestly rebounded after 11th consecutive declines months, HKG-US ($4.55) rebounded after 4th consecutive declines months.
SHA-EUR ($3.04) rebounded after falling to a ‘23-year low, SHA-US ($4.59) rose 7.6% MoM

HKG-US forecast $3.9 - $4.4 in the 3Q and $4.0 -$4.4 in the 4Q of 2023
HKG-EUR forecast $3.6 - $3.8 in the 3Q and $3.5 ~ $3.6 in the 4Q of 2023

[Asia]
International air freight demand (FTK) fell 0.6% you in July, according to the Asia-Pacific Airlines Association (AAPA). Air cargo volumes continue to decline in July as the continued slowdown in global trade volumes continues to weigh on air freight demand. Overall cargo capacity expanded by 8.4% as ongoing flight restoration boosted belly, with aver. Intl. load factor (L/F) fell 5.5%p to 60.9% in July.

[Americas/Europe]
- Boeing’s Commercial Market Outlook predicts that over 48,000 new aircraft will be needed by 2042. The 2023 Pilot and Technicians Outlook forecasts a need for over 2.8 million new aviation personnel, including pilots, cabin crew, and technicians. China, Eurasia, and North America are the main regions driving over half of the demand of new aviation personnel.(8/12, Simple Flying)
- Lufthansa Cargo has the ambition to establish a ‘European same-day ecommerce network’, centered around Frankfurt. CEO Ashwin Bhat emphasized the company’s objective “to build a European same-day and ecommerce network, and thereby establish Lufthansa Cargo as the leading European cargo airline and service partner in the market”.(8/24, Ecommerce News)