Market Intelligence [Oct 2026] Logistics Market Intelligence Report

Registration dateOCT 16, 2026

In October, USWC and USEC rates stayed high on solid US import demand and carrier capacity management, while N. Europe and the Mediterranean weakened on soft demand and supply pressure from the return to Suez, keeping trade lanes divergent. After Golden Week, lower China-origin shipments are expected to broaden downward pressure on rates. We review rates, demand and supply by trade lane.

SCFI Composite Index

: The September SCFI Composite Index averaged 3,658pt, up 8.0% MoM, and held at a similar level to the prior week at 3,664pt in Week 41. Strength in Americas rates supported the index, while weakness in N. Europe and ECSA has recently slowed its rise.

USWC averaged $7,436/FEU, up 10.6% MoM, and was $7,584 in Week 41, up 0.1% WoW. After rising on solid US import demand and carrier capacity management, rates have recently held steady at a high level. USEC averaged $10,482/FEU, up 8.6%, and was $10,524 in Week 41, at a similar level to the prior week. Rates stayed high on solid import demand and carrier capacity management, but gains slowed around Golden Week.

N. Europe and the Mediterranean averaged 15.4% and 16.7% lower MoM in September on weak demand and supply pressure from the return to Suez. In Week 41, N. Europe rebounded 3.4% as shipments resumed after Golden Week and carriers adjusted capacity, while the Mediterranean held flat on high supply pressure. ECSA and the Middle East rose 1.2% and 12.7% in September but both fell in Week 41.

(Source : Shanghai Shipping Exchange)

Samsung SDS SCFI Outlook

: Downward pressure on the SCFI Composite Index is expected to build as China-origin demand slows after Golden Week and the return to Suez adds supply pressure. Americas capacity management and Middle East transit constraints limit the decline, but weakness in N. Europe and the Mediterranean weighs on the index.

USWC is expected to be flat to slightly lower on US import demand and carrier blank sailings. Lower China-origin shipments after Golden Week and slowing year-end import demand add downward pressure, while carrier capacity management limits the decline. USEC is also expected to be flat to slightly lower on solid US import demand and capacity management. Capacity deployment burden from long-haul sailings limits the decline, but slowing year-end imports could bring a gradual drop.

N. Europe and the Mediterranean are expected to face continued downward pressure from weak demand and growing available capacity as vessels return to Suez. The impact is relatively larger in the Mediterranean, while a rebound in N. Europe is limited despite late-October rate increase attempts. ECSA is expected to stay weak on slowing demand and capacity pressure; a mid-October GRI may limit the decline, but a sustained rebound is uncertain. The Middle East remains at risk of weakness from recent rate adjustments despite Hormuz transit constraints.

(Source : Samsung SDS Brightics)

Demand & Supply

: Global container trade is forecast to grow 4.1% YoY in 2026. US-bound demand remains high on year-end inventory building, while Europe-bound demand has remained weak since Q3. Q4 2026 Asia-North America volume is forecast to grow 2.5% YoY and Asia-Europe 3.7%.

Imports at major US ports in September are forecast at 2.28 million TEU, up 8.6% YoY. October imports are forecast at 2.25 million TEU, up 8.7%, with the earlier forecast revised up sharply on year-end inventory building. November and December are forecast to ease gradually to 2.00 and 2.02 million TEU, but full-year 2026 imports are forecast at 25.8 million TEU, up 1.5% YoY.

The global containership fleet is forecast to grow 4.6% YoY in 2026, slightly above demand growth of 4.1% and keeping supply structurally ahead. Newbuilding deliveries remain high at 1.55 million TEU while scrapping is low at 0.04 million TEU, keeping pressure from fleet growth. In October, blank sailings after Golden Week adjust capacity on Americas routes, but Europe faces growing pressure from more available capacity as vessels return to Suez. Congestion at Chinese and Asian ports partly limits short-term supply growth.

(Source : Clarksons, Samsung SDS Brightics)

Regional Trends

[Asia] Shanghai congestion eases quickly while Singapore stays high

-Congestion at Shanghai fell 21.9% from 191.7 vessels in Week 38 to 149.8 in Week 40 as typhoon effects eased and the backlog cleared. Singapore stayed high at 150.3 vessels in Week 40 versus 149.4 in Week 38, as regional transshipment volumes limited any improvement despite fewer disruptions at major Chinese ports. Global schedule reliability in August fell 5.9%p MoM to 49.9%, a second straight sharp decline on congestion at major Asian ports and sailing disruptions.

[Americas] Solid US import demand, Long Beach congestion rises again

-Congestion at Long Beach rose from 11.7 vessels in Week 38 to 16.3 in Week 40, while New York stayed high at 29.6 versus 29.1. Consistently high US-bound imports and bunched vessel arrivals were the cause. Vessels deployed on Asia-USWC fell 9.7% MoM to 121 in September but are forecast to rise 9.1% to 132 in October, while Asia-USEC is forecast to rise 10.1% from 69 to 76.

[Europe] Suez return adds available capacity, Rotterdam congestion rises again

-Congestion at Rotterdam rose again to 58.1 vessels in Week 40, while Hamburg stabilized at 33.5, showing differences between ports. Vessels deployed on Asia-N. Europe fell 3.1% MoM to 94 in September but are forecast to rise 3.2% to 97 in October, while Asia-Mediterranean is forecast to fall a further 0.8% from 121 to 120. The wider return to Suez is increasing pressure from more actually available capacity.

In September, semiconductor and AI server demand supported Americas-bound volumes, while China/Hong Kong-Europe weakened after the EU ended its de minimis exemption, widening differences between lanes. For October-November, Americas rates are expected to stay high and rise gradually as peak season starts after Golden Week, then level off. We review rates, demand and supply by lane.

TAC Index

: The Baltic Air Freight Index stood at 2,481 in Week 40, up 0.6% WoW and 21.7% YoY. The September average was 2,457, up 1.4% MoM and 20.4% YoY, continuing its rise.

September rates shifted from flat to a gradual rise versus August. Fuel costs from the Middle East conflict and higher oil prices supported the rate floor.

In September, China-origin rates to the Americas rose 31.7-32.5% YoY, while rates to Europe rose only 10.4-12.8%, a clear divide. Korea-origin rates rose 55.8% to the Americas and 40.4% to Europe, and Vietnam-origin rates rose 24.0-24.6% to North America and Europe. India-origin rates rose 54.5% to North America and 62.5% to Europe, the largest gains, with volatility continuing as Gulf airspace detours coincide with Mumbai cargo infrastructure upgrades.

(Source : TAC Index)

Samsung SDS TAC Outlook

: With Americas rates staying high, demand and supply volatility is expected to widen around Golden Week. Semiconductor and AI server demand provides support but strong peak-season signals are limited, while added freighter capacity is expected to offset lower belly capacity.

Fuel costs from higher oil prices continue to support the rate floor, and e-commerce peak-season volumes may be weaker than last year. As volume recovers with peak season after Golden Week, rates are expected to keep rising and then level off, led by China/Hong Kong-Americas lanes.

North America-bound rates may keep rising gradually as high ocean rates shift volume to air alongside semiconductor demand. Europe-bound rates are expected to see only a limited rebound on weak e-commerce, with gains held below North America by EU tariffs and freighter cuts.

(Source : Samsung SDS Brightics)

Demand & Supply

: August demand fell 1.8% MoM but rose 5.3% YoY, widening the supply-demand squeeze. The Asia-North America lane grew 13.2% YoY, expanding for a seventh straight month, while the Asia-Europe lane grew only 3.1% as demand weakened after the EU ended its de minimis exemption.

Global demand in September turned up 7.0% YoY on recovery from North America and Europe after Labor Day in the US and Canada. Semiconductor and AI server demand lifted Korea, Japan and Taiwan-origin cargo to the Americas before Chuseok, with servers and racks the biggest driver. Pre-Golden Week front-loading drove China-US volumes, while China/Hong Kong-Europe weakened again. In the Middle East and South Asia, Dubai-origin volumes plunged as the Gulf conflict resumed, while India and Bangladesh-origin volumes to the US held firm.

August supply fell 1.3% MoM and rose only 0.1% YoY, well below the rise in demand. September supply rose 2.3% YoY (1.6% versus the previous four weeks), while passenger belly capacity fell 2.5% versus the previous four weeks. Passenger aircraft hold 41% of global supply, freighters 40% and integrators 19%, and January-September charter freighter supply is up 79% YoY, close to pandemic-peak levels.

(Source : IATA, Monthly statistics)

Regional Trends

[Asia] Semiconductor-led Americas growth, Singapore high-tech volumes rise

-Asia-origin demand fell 2.0% versus the previous two weeks but rose 8.0% YoY, led by US-bound semiconductors. Asia-origin supply rose 4.0% YoY as freighters, including charters, were added mainly on East Asia-North America. Singapore Changi (SIN) handled 190 thousand tonnes in August, up 7.3% YoY, driven by high-tech volumes from AI assembly hubs in Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand. Hong Kong (HKG) handled 422 thousand tonnes, down 1.6%, as e-commerce volumes to Europe stayed lower after the EU ended its de minimis exemption.

[Americas] Strong North America recovery, LAX semiconductor and AI server volumes continue

-North America-origin demand rose 5.0% versus the previous two weeks and 7.0% YoY, recovering strongly after Labor Day. Supply rose 4.0% YoY, growing less than demand. Los Angeles (LAX) handled 202.4 thousand tonnes in August, up 7.2% YoY; growth slowed from 14.6% in July but semiconductor and AI server volumes from Asia kept volumes at record levels.

[Europe] Europe-origin supply growth lowest, Europe-bound e-commerce weak

-Europe-origin demand rose 6.0% versus the previous two weeks and 7.0% YoY, but supply fell 1.0% versus the previous two weeks and rose only 1.0% YoY, the weakest of any region. European airlines' international supply fell 6.4% YoY, and freighter capacity cut from China to Europe was redeployed to North America. Frankfurt (FRA) handled 175.3 thousand tonnes in August, up 3.0% YoY, with demand for auto and machinery parts offsetting weak e-commerce.

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Market Intelligence [Oct 2026] Logistics Market Intelligence Report

SCFI Composite Index

Samsung SDS SCFI Outlook

Demand & Supply

Regional Trends

TAC Index

Samsung SDS TAC Outlook

Demand & Supply

Regional Trends

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